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View More NewsResearchers at the Bank for International Settlements found that estimates of Bitcoin onchain transfer values can vary by as much as sixfold depending on how transactions are measured.The finding concerns onchain Bitcoin transfer values, rather than trading volume on crypto exchanges. The sixfold gap reflects differences between measurement methods, including how change outputs and other transfers back to the sender are treated.The discrepancy stems largely from Bitcoin’s transaction structure. When users spend Bitcoin, unspent funds are often returned to the sender as change, which can be counted as another output even though it does not represent funds being transferred to…
The pullback is also showing up on Kalshi, where traders are increasingly pushing any breakthrough further into the future. The contract for a crypto market structure bill becoming law before Oct. 1, 2027, fell to 36% Tuesday, down from around 53% Monday morning.For comparison, traders on Monday had put the chances of passage before July 1, 2027, at 53%. By Tuesday, the longer timeline was looking more plausible: Kalshi traders gave the bill, or another qualifying crypto market structure measure, a 51% chance of becoming law only by Jan. 1, 2028.The reversal comes after prediction markets surged on Monday on…
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