What Will Stop ETH Price Crash?

Ether (ETH) dropped sharply after rejection at $2,400 last week, dropping as low as $2,100 on Monday, indicating that bears are back “in control,” according to new analysis.

Key takeaways:

• Ether drops 12% after rejection at $2,400 as bears regain control.
• Binance sell pressure and ETF outflows signal weak ETH demand.
• Analysts warn ETH/USD could fall toward $1,700 if support at $2,000 breaks.

ETH bears selling aggressively

Data from TradingView shows ETH price trading at $2,100, down 12% below its local high of $2,420 reached on May 6. On Sunday, ETH/USD hit $2,090 on Bitstamp, its lowest level since April 17.

ETH/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bearish sentiment could be returning to Ether’s market as a key metric from Binance, the largest crypto exchange by trading volume, shows that sellers are starting to dominate the platform’s volumes.

Related: Surging oil prices have been driving Ether selling pressure: Tom Lee

The Binance taker buy volume, which measures the total dollar amount of aggressive sell orders placed by traders on Binance futures, climbed above $1.1 billion within an hour on Sunday as ETH moved toward levels below $2,100. 

When this metric spikes during price declines, it often points to forced de-risking or strong short-term bearish pressure from active market participants.

Ether saw “large aggressive sell-volume spikes on Binance while testing important downside levels,” CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha said in a QuickTake note on Monday, adding:

“This does not necessarily confirm the start of a deeper downtrend. However, it shows that sellers were clearly in control during the move.”

ETH taker sell volume on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

Increasing outflows from ETH investment products added to the sell-side pressure.

Data from SoSoValue shows US-based spot Ethereum ETFs had net outflows for five consecutive days, totalling $255 million. 

This suggests that “institutional momentum has hit a localized wall for Ethereum,” analyst Whale Factor said in a Sunday post, adding:

“This heavy sell-side distribution is keeping a tight lid on prices for now. ”

Spot ETH ETF flows chart. Source: SoSoValue

Global Ethereum investment products also saw $249 million in outflows during the week ending May 15, the largest since Jan. 30, data from CoinShares shows.  

3.5 million ETH cluster at $2,000 could abate a sell-off

According to Ether’s cost-basis distribution data, investors hold approximately 3.85 million ETH at an average cost basis of $2,000-$2,100, creating a potential support zone. This concentration suggests many investors may add to their positions at break-even, potentially abating another ETH price breakdown.

Ethereum cost basis distribution chart. Source: Glassnode

As Cointelegraph reported, the ETH price could potentially drop toward $1,700 after validating a rising wedge pattern on the daily time frame. Traders, however, say the bearish momentum could be stalled if ETH/USD holds above $2,000.

“$ETH dropped below $2,100 as it failed to hold the $2,150 support zone,” said crypto analyst Ted Pillows in an X post on Tuesday, adding:

“The next key support for Ethereum is the $2,050-$2,070 level, which could provide some bounce back.”

ETH/USD daily chart. Source: X/Ted Pillows

Technical analyst Donald Dean said ETH bulls need to defend the “lower volume shelf support near $2,100” to avoid a move below a rising channel on the daily chart.

ETH/USD daily chart. Source: X/Donald Dean

Fellow analyst Cryptorphic said if the ETH/USD pair fails to “hold this area and consolidates below it, we could see a continuation toward lower support levels,” adding:

“The recent breakdown below the local support area shows that buyers are getting weaker in the short term.”

Meanwhile, Sharplink CEO pointed out three catalysts that the ETH price needs to surge higher, including the passage of the CLARITY Act in the US, a return of marketwide risk appetite, and growth in real-world asset tokenization on Ethereum.