Was the Bitcoin Jump a ‘Fake Breakout’?

Bitcoin posted its fifth best daily return for the year on Tuesday, gaining 5.7% for the day. But analysts are weighing whether the spike is the start of a prolonged breakout.

They note investors’ concerns about macroeconomic uncertainties, including the U.S. central bank’s upcoming decision on interest rates, that are keeping markets unsettled.

“On December 3, the crypto market saw broad gains as BTC briefly broke above $93,000 before swiftly giving back its advance—a structure that resembles a potential ‘fake breakout,’” Bitunix analysts wrote in a note shared with Decrypt. “The short-term setup has shifted into a choppy pullback, with markets watching whether BTC can stabilize within the $90,000–$91,000 support zone.”

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading for $92,772 after gaining 0.7% compared to this time yesterday, according to crypto price aggregator CoinGecko. That’s still about 14% lower than BTC was trading in early November—but just about even with its price this time last year.

Bitcoin trading volume has climbed 16% with $128 billion worth of coins changing hands, according to crypto analytics platform Coinglass.

Yesterday’s renewed optimism led to  $58.5 million worth of funds flowing into Bitcoin ETFs. That’s a significant uptick from Monday, when BTC funds pulled in just $8.5 million, according to U.K. asset manager Farside Investors. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, or IBIT, took in $120 million worth of new capital, but that was offset by a $90.9 million net loss for the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, or ARKB.

Analysts at Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital also flagged that while markets may seem calm, traders are bracing for the next catalyst.

A week before the Federal Open Markets Committee’s last meeting of the year, traders now assign an 89% probability that a third rate cut will be approved, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. A month ago, investors showed only a 66.8% possibility of another rate cut.

But the Federal Reserve is still operating without fresh inflation or employment data. Although the U.S. government shutdown officially ended when President Donald Trump signed a deal on November 12, the Bureau of Labor Statistics still has backlogs of unprocessed data that won’t be ready for publication before the Fed’s meeting next week.

Beyond that, there will still be other macroeconomic catalysts heading into early next year, the QCP analysts said in their trading note.

“Betting markets have moved aggressively, assigning a roughly 85% probability that Kevin Hassett will become the next Fed Chair, with Trump expected to formalize the decision early next year,” they wrote. “This transition comes at a fragile moment for monetary policy and raises questions over how a reshaped leadership might influence the Fed’s reaction function.”

Powell, whose term ends in May 2026, isn’t the only one set to leave the Federal Reserve in 2026. Stephen Miran, who was appointed in September to fill a seat left vacant by Adriana Kugler, will leave in January.