QCP Says Global Liquidity, Not Fed Cuts, Is Powering the Market

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QCP Capital says the market has moved beyond simple rate watching and into a full liquidity regime, where central-bank balance sheets and cross-border capital flows drive risk more than the Fed’s next 25 basis points.

“Central bank buying, de-dollarization flows, and institutional portfolio hedging have become the dominant forces propelling gold higher, extending its relevance well beyond the traditional inflation-hedge framework,” QCP Capital wrote, noting that during last weekend’s volatility, the Bitcoin–gold correlation has climbed above 0.85, highlighting synchronized flows between the two asset classes.

Prediction markets are coalescing around a steady but shallow Fed easing cycle that favors gold and digital assets over high-beta risk.

On Kalshi, traders now assign a 76% chance of exactly three rate cuts in 2025, with a total easing of 75 bps, matching JP Morgan’s baseline for a “mid-cycle, non-recessionary” path. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman’s remarks this week, calling for two additional cuts by year-end, reinforced that trajectory.

Bitcoin is trading inside that same liquidity framework.

Kalshi traders see a 51% probability it breaks $130,000 this year, which would mark a new all-time high, 33% for $140,000, and just 21% for $150,000, with even odds of touching $150,000 by mid-2026.

The market is positioning for a slow-burn rally, not a speculative surge, as easing expectations filter gradually into real yields and dollar liquidity. Glassnode data shows a dense cluster of call positions at the $130,000 strike, indicating that options flows could amplify short-term moves but also anchor resistance near that level.

The macro and on-chain signals point in the same direction: this is no adrenaline-driven bull market, but a slow, liquidity-fed advance that may keep pushing assets higher even without an aggressive Fed pivot.

That is, if the market can survive another Truth Social post.

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin is trading above $110,500, down 2%, pressured by renewed U.S.–China trade tensions and worries about global risk, while analysts caution that breaching the $110,000 support could open the door to a drop toward $96,500–$100,000

ETH: Ethereum is changing hands around $3,900, down about 4%, as investors scale back exposure amid macro uncertainty and crypto rout concerns, while some remain optimistic that ETH may “catch up” to gold over time

Gold: Gold is trading near $4,141.81/oz as safe-haven demand rises amid U.S.–China flare‑ups and mounting expectations for U.S. rate cuts.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets rose Thursday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.95%, following Wall Street gains driven by strong bank earnings.

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