What next for bitcoin as it faces headwinds from Fed rates to Claude’s Mythos

David Nicholas, CEO and Founder of XFUNDs by Nicholas Wealth and portfolio manager of several actively managed ETFs including BLOX, which maintains bitcoin as a core holding, views the current bitcoin market as technically damaged.

He notes that BTC is trading roughly 20% below its 50-day moving average, a situation he describes as a “broken chart.” This significant deviation has prompted Nicholas to maintain defensive hedges on the position while monitoring for signs of stabilization.

As of writing, bitcoin changed hands near $61,400, with the 50-day simple moving average at $75,020, according to CoinDesk data.

Despite acknowledging oversold conditions that could fuel a short-term bounce, Nicholas remains cautious. According to him, at least a 20% recovery is needed to turn bullish on BTC, yet even that move would still leave price action well below the 200-day moving average.

Other traders have mentioned levels ranging from $68,000 to $80,000 as thresholds that need to be breached for a bull revival.