The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET today, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. Traders typically assign greater weight to FOMC meetings that come with updated economic projections and a “dot plot” of interest-rate forecasts. Today’s gathering lacks both. Yet the outcome still carries outsized importance for three reasons. Unusual uncertainty over the outcome: Markets are still assigning roughly a 35% probability of a rate increase, CME fed funds futures show. That level of indecision is rare so close to a decision. By now, traders have usually converged on…

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