Open USD poses new threat to Circle by challenging USDC’s core business model, CoinShares says

USDC’s circulating supply has fallen to about $73 billion from nearly $80 billion in March, trimming its share of the roughly $312 billion stablecoin market as competition from newly regulated issuers intensifies.

Circle shares fell more than 17% on the day Open USD was announced, though CoinShares said the decline was likely amplified by technical selling linked to the Russell index reconstitution.

Still, the report argued the market may be overreacting. Open USD has yet to launch, important details remain unresolved and Circle retains a significant advantage through USDC’s deep liquidity and years of integrations across exchanges, DeFi and payments.

Open USD is unlikely to pose a major threat to Tether, whose dominance in emerging markets and offshore dollar liquidity gives USDT, the largest stablecoin by far, a different competitive moat, the report added.

For now, investors should watch whether Circle changes its distribution strategy and whether Open USD can convert its high-profile backing into adoption, CoinShares said. Until then, the project remains a credible, but unproven, challenge to USDC.

CoinShares is not alone in noting the challenge posed by Open USD. Japanese investment bank Mizuho downgraded Circle to underperform from neutral and slashed its price target to $50 from $85 in a note to clients on Tuesday, arguing that the new rival’s business model threatens the stablecoin issuer’s long-term economics.