New Federal Reserve Chair Sworn In, but Rate Cut Odds Remain at 0

Kevin Warsh was sworn in on Friday as the chairman of the United States Federal Reserve, but investors and traders still forecast no interest rate cuts for the rest of 2026.

Speaking at the ceremony, US President Donald Trump said that Warsh will remain “independent” of the Executive Branch regarding interest rate policy, and claimed that employment numbers are at record levels. 

“Thankfully, unlike some of his predecessors, Kevin understands that when the economy is booming, that’s a good thing,” Trump said. He added:

“We do have some debt we would like to take care of, and the way you do that is through growth. We are going to grow our way out of it so fast.” 

Warsh, pictured on the left, is sworn into office by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas. Source: The White House

“We want to stop inflation, but we don’t want to stop greatness,” Trump continued, drawing mixed reactions from investors and economists, who weighed the likelihood of the Federal Reserve continuing to expand the monetary supply through low interest rates.

Lower interest rates are stimulative for risk-on assets like Bitcoin and crypto; however, cheap access to credit can also cause inflationary spikes, as individuals and institutions are encouraged to borrow cheaply and spend money on investments and commercial goods.

Related: Senate confirms Kevin Warsh to lead Federal Reserve

Investors forecast a 0% likelihood of interest rate cuts in 2026

Investors forecast no chance of an interest rate cut in 2026, and potential rate hikes at the remaining Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s (CME) FedWatch tool.

3.5% of investors forecast a 25 basis point (BPS) interest rate hike at the next FOMC meeting, scheduled for June 17, according to CME data. For context, the current Federal Funds Target rate is between 350 and 375 BPS. 

Interest rate target probabilities for the June FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

The probability of a 25 BPS rate hike at the July FOMC meeting surged to 17%, and about 67% of investors forecast a rate hike at the FOMC’s final meeting in December.

The lack of interest rate cuts and macroeconomic uncertainty regarding the change at the Federal Reserve could negatively impact risk assets like Bitcoin, crypto and equities over the next several months.

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