Fed stays on hold as expected as Kevin Warsh moves closer to confirmation

As fully expected by markets, the U.S. Federal Reserve held its benchmark fed funds rate range steady at 3.50%-3.75% on Wednesday, marking the fourth straight meeting without a change as officials weigh persistent inflation risks against signs of slowing economic growth.

“In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks,” said the Fed in its policy statement.

There were four dissents to the rate decision, one dovish and three hawkish. Fed Governor Stephen Mirran preferred trimming rates by 25 basis points, while Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan wanted to hold rates steady while removing any easing bias.

Under pressure ahead of the news, bitcoin BTC$76,162.43 remained about 0.5% lower over the past 24 hours, trading just below $76,000. U.S. stocks continued with modest declines, the Nasdaq down 0.35%. Yields are shooting higher, the two-year Treasury up 9 basis points to 3.93% and the 10-year up 5 basis points to 4.40%.

Today’s central bank meeting is likely to be the last to be presided over by Jerome Powell, whose term as chairman ends on May 15. His replacement, Kevin Warsh, passed a Senate Banking Committee vote earlier Wednesday, putting him on track to take over as Powell steps down. The three hawkish dissents suggest that Warsh will have a difficult task to push through rate cuts even if that is the direction he would like to go.

Attention will next turn to Powell’s post-meeting press conference as traders look for clues on the path forward for monetary policy.

After pulling back sharply earlier this month amid hopes for a lasting peace between the U.S. and Iran, oil prices have rebounded to near their post-war highs, with WTI crude trading just shy of $105 per barrel.

Higher energy costs naturally feed through to headline inflation numbers, but they can also slow economic activity. It puts the U.S. central bank in a difficult position: which of its mandates — prices or economic growth — should it prioritize?