BTC Climbs Through the Fog as Analysts Split on What’s Driving It

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Bitcoin is beginning the Thursday trading day in Asia trading above $123,000, and its chart looks like a rocket trail through the fog, analysts say, painting it as an aggressive rally high powered by ETF inflows, mid-tier accumulation, and a quiet conviction that this isn’t the top yet.

That conviction is grounded in three converging signals from major market watchers.

In its most recent note, QCP wrote that it sees capital rotating out of overextended AI equities and into “credibility hedges” like gold and Bitcoin as policy uncertainty deepens.

Glassnode points to record ETF inflows and mid-tier accumulation flipping resistance into support. And CryptoQuant wrote that it finds on-chain profit-taking still well below historic peaks, suggesting the rally has room to run even as leverage builds. Together, they describe a market that’s structurally bullish but tactically crowded: steady hands underneath, froth on top.

But the same data that show conviction also point to complacency. Futures open interest has reached record highs, funding rates are above 8%, and a call-heavy options positioning leaves the market vulnerable to a sharp decline if momentum fades. Analysts call it a classic “strong trend, weak hands” setup: one that often needs a leverage reset before the next leg higher.

“The current pullback is now testing this leverage, helping to reset positioning and restore balance,” wrote Glassnode in its weekly report. QCP Capital added that “yesterday’s move lower looked like positioning, not policy,” while CryptoQuant observed that “profit-taking remains subdued compared to previous market tops.”

Yet even among the data desks, the message isn’t uniform. Glassnode warns that leverage needs to be flushed before the rally can stabilize; CryptoQuant argues the market still has breathing room before euphoria sets in; and QCP frames the move as a macro rotation into “credibility hedges” like gold and BTC.

Bitcoin’s climb is being watched from three different altitudes.

With funding rates high and open interest still climbing, traders may get the reset they’ve been warning about. The question isn’t whether Bitcoin can hold $120,000, it’s whether the next dip will prove the rally’s depth or expose its fragility.

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin BTC$122,108.97 is trading above $123,000, steady after rebounding from this week’s pullback as ETF inflows and whale accumulation continue to support prices. While short-term momentum has cooled, institutional demand and the broader “debasement trade” narrative keep the uptrend intact heading into October’s seasonally bullish period.

ETH: Ethereum ETH$4,457.47 is trading at $4,516, holding steady after recent volatility as traders rotate back into major layer-1 assets. Sentiment remains supported by strong ETF inflows, optimism ahead of December’s Fusaka upgrade, and renewed institutional interest in staking and DeFi yields.

Gold: Gold surged past $4,000 for the first time Wednesday, its 40th record high this year, driven by geopolitical tensions, U.S. fiscal uncertainty, and sustained central bank demand led by China’s eleventh consecutive month of gold purchases

Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.1% Thursday, led by a 10% surge in SoftBank after it agreed to buy ABB’s robotics unit for $5.4 billion, as optimism over Prime Minister-elect Sanae Takaichi’s expansionist agenda and continued loose monetary policy fueled gains across tech and cyclical stocks.

Elsewhere in Crypto

• ‘Don’t be Stupid’: Why Grant Cardone Says Bitcoiners Shouldn’t Chase Gold’s Historic Rally (Decrypt)
• Coinbase is hiring a ‘token & governance research specialist’ for its Base team (The Block)
• Brevan Howard-Backed Tokenization Firm Expands Funds to Sei as RWA Momentum Grows (CoinDesk)