Bitcoin ‘Trend Reversal Signal’ Flashes as $82.5K Resistance Key for Bulls

Bitcoin (BTC) could be set for an extended uptrend, with a pending bullish signal from a key valuation metric suggesting that BTC prices might go “much higher,” according to crypto analysts.

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin’s MVRV golden cross signals a shift to bullishness, historically preceding prolonged price rallies.
• Bitcoin traders argue $60,000 was the bear market bottom, see “huge” BTC price breakout next.

Bitcoin MVRV momentum sends a “trend reversal signal”

Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, an indicator that measures whether the asset is overvalued, is about to print a “golden cross,” an occurrence that has previously preceded massive price rallies, according to CryptoQuant analyst CW8900.

Related: Saylor signals another Bitcoin buy after hinting at selling in Q1 earnings call

“A golden cross between the $BTC MVRV Ratio and the 200D EMA line is imminent,” the analyst said in an X post on Sunday, adding: 

“This signal is a representative trend reversal signal and is a bullish indicator.”

Bitcoin MVRV momentum indicator. Source: CryptoQuant

The last time the indicator produced this bullish crossover was just after the 2022 cycle bottom, preceding a 90% BTC price rally to $31,000 from $16,300 in Q1 2023. Another cross in September 2023 was followed by a 400% bull run to the current all-time high of $126,000 reached in October 2025.

In an earlier analysis, CW8900 highlighted a golden cross when the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio crossed above its 90-day SMA in late April, saying:

“$BTC has completely turned to a bullish trend.”

Source: CW8900

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s recent rally to $83,000 boosted the short-term holder (STH) cost basis level as newer buyers returned to profitability.

STH cost basis refers to the average purchase price of investors who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days.

The chart below shows that the price could rise higher to touch the “heated” band of this metric, currently at $92,000. 

Despite profit-taking at current prices, the STH risk zone suggests BTC can go higher in the short term with the “heated” band at $92,000 and the overheated band at $104,000.

Bitcoin short-term cost basis bands. Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin analysts say BTC’s “huge breakout” is coming

As Cointelegraph reported, analysts say Bitcoin is at a make-or-break point as it retests the 200-day moving average at $82,500. 

A break above this level could end the multi-month downtrend, while a rejection could result in a fresh sell-off toward $50,000. 

Analyst Shib Spain argues that BTC’s break above a multi-month downtrend line on the weekly chart marked a structural shift from bearish dominance, reinforced by a bullish crossover from the MACD indicator. 

“Bitcoin’s huge breakout is coming. MACD bullish reversal forming,” the analyst said in a recent post on X, adding:

“The bull run is just getting started.”

BTC/USD daily weekly chart. Source: Shib Spain

Fellow analyst Moustache highlights the BTC market cap and its RSI bouncing off multi-year support lines on the monthly time frame, as shown in the chart below.

“Just like in 2022, I’ve called the bottom for $BTC again this cycle,” the analyst said in an X post on Monday, adding:

“Prices will go much, much higher. We’ve got something big to look forward to.”

Bitcoin market cap, USD. Source: X/Moustache

As Cointelegraph reported, several analysts predict a “supercycle” rally toward $180,000-$250,000 as early as this year, supported by institutional accumulation and a strengthening technical setup.