Bitcoin Is ‘Boring’ AI-Hungry Retail Investors, But Bernstein Still Sees $150K This Year

Bitcoin has tumbled roughly 27% so far in 2026, battered by weak inflows and retail investors who have largely redirected their enthusiasm toward AI stocks. But analysts at Bernstein are pushing back against the gloom, arguing the cryptocurrency’s quiet year is evidence of growing institutional stability rather than structural decline.

In a research note published Monday, Bernstein’s Global Digital Assets team pointed to a stark drop in capital flowing into Bitcoin this year. Net inflows from exchange-traded funds and corporate treasury buyers have fallen to roughly $12 billion year-to-date, compared with $60 billion across all of 2025—a decline of 80%. Bitcoin ETFs have actually seen net outflows of $2.6 billion from a total asset base of $75 billion.

But the analysts framed that retreat in an optimistic light. Retail investors, they argued, have simply moved on to chasing AI-related stocks, leaving Bitcoin’s holder base increasingly dominated by institutional players, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and corporate treasury buyers—a more stable foundation than the speculative crowds that drove previous cycles.

Strategy, the software company turned Bitcoin treasury giant, has continued accumulating aggressively despite the recent declines. The firm raised $7.5 billion through its preferred stock instrument (STRC) this year, using the proceeds to purchase roughly 100,000 Bitcoin. The company now holds more than 845,000 BTC, worth approximately $53.6 billion.

The broader crypto market capitalization sits at roughly $2.25 trillion as of this writing—a fraction of global equity and commodity markets, which Bernstein noted remain the dominant focus for most investors this cycle. Many Bitcoin mining companies have also pivoted toward AI data centers, including IREN and Cipher Digital, posting substantial gains in the process.

Even with Bitcoin trading just above the $63,000 mark as of this writing, down approximately 50% from its October peak, Bernstein maintained its long-term Bitcoin price target of $150,000 by year’s end—a hopeful bet amid the market distress.

“We believe this maturation phase of Bitcoin is less appreciated, and the criticism has largely come from its lack of retail momentum—which may not be a bad thing considering retail has crowded into AI,” they wrote. “Bitcoin being boring this cycle should not be held against it, and does not take away from the long-term ‘store of value’ thesis, in our view.”