Bitcoin is 49% below its record while the S&P 500 hits all-time highs

SK Hynix rose 6.4% after the Seoul open and Nvidia added over 2% after hours, though AMD dropped 9% on a soft sales outlook and SpaceX fell 7.5% on higher projected AI spending.

Brent crude fell 1.1% to about $78.50 a barrel after Axios reported Washington, Tehran and Oman were close to an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with an announcement targeted for Wednesday. Treasuries and gold both advanced as traders trimmed bets on further rate hikes.

Equities are printing records while bitcoin sits roughly 49% below the $126,000 it reached last October, and the second-largest asset is falling on the week.

Cheaper oil, easing rate expectations and a risk-on equity bid have now failed to move crypto for three straight sessions, which points the drag inward rather than at the macro.

Watch what happens if the Hormuz announcement lands Wednesday as reported. That is the cleanest macro catalyst crypto will get this week, and a market that cannot rally on a confirmed deal after failing to rally on the prospect of one is telling you the buyers are elsewhere.