Ken Paxton’s Primary Victory Shows How Trump’s Grudges Undermine His Party’s Interests

In the first round of the Republican U.S. Senate primary in Texas on March 3, John Cornyn, the incumbent, prevailed over his closest competitor, outgoing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, by about two points. But in the second round on Tuesday, Paxton trounced Cornyn, winning 64 percent of the vote in the head-to-head match.

Since the candidates disqualified in the first round received less than 17 percent of the vote in total, that is a pretty striking reversal. The only factor that can plausibly explain it is President Donald Trump’s last-minute endorsement of Paxton, which he announced one week before Texans cast their ballots.

Paxton’s victory is further evidence that Trump, despite his low approval ratings in national polls, retains enough sway over Republican primary voters to defeat candidates he deems insufficiently loyal to him. But a party organized around one man’s petty vendettas may face problems down the road, as illustrated by the challenge of persuading Texas voters to pick Paxton, a divisive and scandal-plagued Trump devotee, over Democratic nominee James Talarico in November.

Until Tuesday, Cornyn, who previously served as a district court judge, a Texas Supreme Court justice, and the state’s attorney general, had never lost an election. He was first elected to the Senate in 2002, when he won 55 percent of the vote. He repeated that performance when he ran for reelection in 2008, received 62 percent of the vote in 2014, and got 54 percent in 2020. During his four terms in the Senate, which included a stint as majority whip, Cornyn had a solidly conservative record, earning an 85 percent lifetime rating from the CPAC Foundation.

Explaining why he decided to oppose a veteran legislator who seemed like the surest bet to help Republicans retain their Senate majority, Trump described Paxton as “an America First Patriot” who “has always been extremely loyal to me and our AMAZING MAGA MOVEMENT.” While Cornyn is “a good man,” Trump said, “he was not supportive of me when times were tough” and “was very late in backing me in what turned out to be a Historic Run for the Republican Nomination.”

Cornyn’s sins against Trump include his comments during the 2016 presidential race. “We can’t have a nominee be an albatross around the down-ballot races,” he told CNN in February 2016. “That’s a concern of mine.” Trump “certainly is a controversial figure,” he added. “I think we need someone who can unify the party, as opposed to divide the party.”

After Trump took office in 2017, Cornyn nevertheless was a reliable defender of his policies and conduct. “Cornyn has proved to be an immutable Trump ally throughout the president’s first term in the White House,” the Texas Observer noted in February 2020, adding that the senator “extended that allegiance when he eagerly took on the role of a top Trump surrogate” after the president’s first impeachment. But Cornyn sinned again later that year in a pre-election interview with the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.

Describing his relationship with Trump, Cornyn said he felt “like a lot of women who get married and think they’re going to change their spouse, and that doesn’t usually work out very well.” He added: “I think what we found is that we’re not going to change President Trump. He is who he is. You either love him or hate him, and there’s not much in between. What I tried to do is not get into public confrontations and fights with him because, as I’ve observed, those usually don’t end too well.” But he acknowledged that he had privately disagreed with the president on issues such as tariffs, the budget deficit, and the legally dubious diversion of funds to pay for Trump’s border wall.

Despite that mild expression of dissent, Cornyn defended Trump after the 2021 Capitol riot, criticizing the resulting impeachment. “Incitement involves a state of mind and intention,” he said. “I am not seeing anything to indicate that the president intended to initiate a riot on the Capitol.” Cornyn tried to prevent the Senate from weighing the impeachment, arguing that it was unconstitutional to try a former president. Unsurprisingly, he was one of the 43 Republicans who voted to acquit Trump.

By 2023, however, Cornyn was publicly expressing concern about the prospect of nominating Trump again. “I think President Trump’s time has passed him by,” he said that May. “I don’t think President Trump understands that when you run in a general election, you have to appeal to voters beyond your base.” He suggested that Republicans should reject Trump in favor of “a candidate who can actually win.”

Desperate to make up for his past heresies, Cornyn did whatever he could to ingratiate himself with the president and his supporters. “I voted with President Trump 99% of the time,” he bragged. He touted that “99% alignment” in a campaign ad, saying he had steadfastly worked with Trump to “strengthen the border,” “defend law enforcement,” and “protect Texas jobs.”

Cornyn “posted a photo of himself” reading Trump’s book The Art of the Deal, the Associated Press notes. “He proposed legislation to rename a stretch of interstate in Trump’s honor. Perhaps most glaringly, the Senate institutionalist who long supported the filibuster reversed his position in a failed effort to advance voting restrictions that are a priority for the president.”

None of that was enough. Trump’s grudge against Cornyn prevailed over a cool assessment of Paxton’s chances against Talarico, which look iffy in light of Paxton’s legal and ethical scrapes.

In July 2015, six months after Paxton took office as attorney general, a state grand jury indicted him on three felony charges stemming from his sales of shares in the technology company Servergy. Prosecutors alleged that Paxton had defrauded investors by failing to disclose that he was receiving commissions on the stock sales. Paxton ultimately avoided trial by agreeing to pay $300,000 in restitution, complete 200 hours of community service, and take 15 hours of training in legal ethics. Although that 2024 deal did not include an acknowledgment of wrongdoing, it was certainly not a good look for the state’s top law enforcement officer.

In May 2023, the Texas House of Representatives overwhelmingly voted to impeach Paxton based on allegations that he had abused his office to benefit real estate developer Nate Paul, a campaign donor. The 20 articles of impeachment included charges that Paxton had improperly issued legal opinions that favored Paul, attempted to intervene in foreclosure lawsuits, retaliated against whistleblowers on his staff, and obstructed justice. After the impeachment, Paxton was suspended from office for more than three months. But that September, the state Senate acquitted Paxton by a 16–14 vote following a trial run by Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, a Paxton ally and donor.

Last July, Paxton’s wife of 38 years, state Sen. Angela Paxton (R–Plano), announced that she had filed for divorce “on biblical grounds,” alleging adultery. “I believe marriage is a sacred covenant and I have earnestly pursued reconciliation,” she said. “But in light of recent discoveries, I do not believe that it honors God or is loving to myself, my children, or Ken to remain in the marriage.” The attorney general suggested that “countless political attacks” had contributed to the rupture, but he did not deny his wife’s claims. “I ask for your prayers and privacy at this time,” he said.

In addition to that baggage, to which Cornyn repeatedly alluded during his campaign, Paxton has taken legal positions that surely endeared him to Trump but may be less appealing to Texas voters in the general election. In December 2020, Paxton filed what Reason‘s Damon Root described as “a frivolous and error-riddled lawsuit asking the Supreme Court to directly intervene in the 2020 election by throwing out the results in four states—Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin—that went for President-elect Joe Biden.”

Four days later, Root noted, “the Supreme Court wiped that nonsense from its docket with the eagerness of someone wiping dog excrement from the bottom of a shoe.” Without rehashing the bogus election-fraud claims that had made no headway in the courts, the justices simply noted that “Texas has not demonstrated a judicially cognizable interest in the manner in which another State conducts its elections.”

Paxton’s eagerness to promote Trump’s stolen-election fantasy in defiance of the facts and the law may not play well in the general election. According to a University of Houston survey conducted a month after the Capitol riot, 55 percent of Texans rejected Trump’s claims of systematic election fraud. And according to recent polls, half of Texas voters take a dim view of Trump, compared to 42 percent who view him favorably.

Although it is less likely to matter with voters, Paxton’s disregard for civil liberties also counts against him. In 2023, Paxton launched a fraud investigation of Media Matters for America based on the organization’s reporting about “pro-Nazi content” on Twitter (now X). After Media Matters challenged that investigation on First Amendment grounds, a federal judge issued a preliminary injunction. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit affirmed that decision in May 2025, saying Media Matters was the “target of a government campaign of retaliation” and an “arguably bad faith investigation” that infringed “exercise of their First Amendment rights” and imposed “special burdens on their newsgathering activities and operation of their media company.”

In 2024, Paxton urged the Supreme Court to reject a petition from Laredo journalist Priscilla Villarreal, who was arrested on felony charges in 2017 because she had asked a police officer to confirm information about two newsworthy events: a public suicide and a fatal car accident. Villarreal’s questions, Paxton averred, were “akin to incitement.” And even if her arrest violated the First Amendment, he said, the cops had no way of knowing that.

Last month, Paxton sued the city of Houston in response to an ordinance that reminded local police officers of their obligation to respect the Fourth Amendment. By reiterating the restrictions that the Supreme Court has imposed on police detention of motorists and pedestrians, he claimed, Houston had violated a state law against local interference with immigration enforcement.

Even if Texas voters are not inclined to research Paxton’s record on civil liberties, they may be swayed by the widely publicized allegations of securities fraud, corruption, and adultery. “Few politicians have garnered as much scandal in Texas as Paxton,” The Washington Post notes. You can be sure that Talarico, who calls Paxton “the most corrupt politician in America,” is glad to be facing off against him rather than Cornyn.

For much the same reason, Senate Republicans are nervous about Paxton’s prospects. Recent polls suggest the race is very close at this point. Even if Paxton ultimately wins, the extra money that will be needed to counter the ethical case against him will draw resources from other races in a year when 20 Republican seats are up for election, compared to 13 Democratic seats.

Cornyn was clearly the safer choice for Republicans keen to maintain their Senate majority. But Trump has rarely allowed political calculations to interfere with his personal grievances.