We Are So Back! Bitcoin’s 23% Rally on US Debt Policy: Hodler’s Digest

Bitcoin suddenly surges: Is the bear market over?

Confidence has returned to crypto markets after Bitcoin saw a sudden rally to gain more than 23% this week to trade around $77,559 at the time of writing. The price briefly topped $79,000 on Friday.

Charting platform Barchart highlighted on Thursday that Bitcoin’s (BTC) price had crossed above its 200-day moving average for the first time since November 2025.

The 200-day moving average is widely used to gauge longer-term market trends, with moves above the indicator viewed as a sign of bullish momentum. Many now believe/hope the cycle has finally flipped positive.

Ethereum gained 31%, Solana gained 28% and XRP surged an astonishing 53%.

The Bitcoin and Ether ETFs took more than $2.61 billion in inflows between them last week, and Micheal Saylor’s Bitcoin investments via Strategy have crossed the breakeven point of $75,385 — officially returning him to the status of far-sighted Bitcoin visionary, rather than degenerate financial engineer. Polymarket odds of Bitcoin reaching $90,000 before 2027 hit 48%.

Bitcoin’s weekly price chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

The rally in crypto prices was also reflected in the share prices of publicly listed crypto related firms including Canaan, Metaplanet, Coinbase and Robinhood which all saw double digit gains.

US debt policy sees rush to crypto and precious metals

The US debt pile crossed $40 trillion this week, and there’s absolutely no plan to balance the budget or to pay it down apart from a vague aspiration to grow the economy. The annual cost of paying interest on the debt has exceeded the cost of Medicare and is second only to social security as the Government’s largest expense.

The Kobeissi Letter attributed the rapid gains in precious metals and crypto to a combination of inflation, deficit spending and US Treasury policy. Record government deficit spending and the Treasury Department’s pledge to at least double the size of certain debt buyback operations to $4 billion helped drive the rally in both asset classes, Kobeissi argued.

The founder of the Bridgewater Associates hedge fund, Ray Dalio, believes investors should allocate around 15% of their portfolios to gold and “a bit of Bitcoin” to position for the impending fallout from the US’s debt problems.

“My guess, which I suppose will be a bad one, is that [a US debt crisis] will come in three years, give or take two, if the course we’re on is not changed,” said Dalio. 

White House meeting with crypto leaders seeks CLARITY

US President Donald Trump has once again called for the passage of the CLARITY Act, following a meeting with crypto company executives including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Gemini co-founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss. Trump said.

He urged members of Congress to pass “a fair version” of the bill to keep the US “ahead of China.” The market structure bill, passed by the House of Representatives in July 2025, is up for a procedural vote on September 15 that will require 60 votes in favor.

“It’s very bipartisan, I would say,” said Trump. “Lot of Democrats support.”

However Democrat Senators appear unlikely to pass the bill without further concessions on ethics provision by Trump. “I think, unfortunately, what the President means is fair to him,“ said Senator Ruben Gallego. “The president doesn’t just get to decide what level of regulation he gets.“

Trump also managed to goose the price of Hyperliquid by 20% at the meeting by revealing: “I understand that Mike [Selig, CFTC chair] is also working to bring Hyperliquid into the United States in a fully compliant and legal fashion.”

SEC unveils proposal that could spark new ICO boom

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has proposed new rules for the cryptocurrency industry that could put pressure on lawmakers to pass the CLARITY Act or spark a new Initial Cryptocurrency Offering boom.

Currently open for a 60 day comment period, the rules offer exemptions to crypto projects that allow the issuance of up to $5 million in tokens during a four-year period, and up to $75 million during a 12-month period with stricter reporting and structure rules. There is also a safe harbor proposal exempting cryptocurrencies from being treated as ”investment contracts.”

Commissioner Hester M. Peirce said that a “whole generation has struggled” with the SEC’s application of, “a set of inapt rules to crypto.” She added the SEC’s new crypto guidelines mark an important step toward “putting clear, sensible, enforceable rules in place for crypto offerings.”

CFTC chair vows to create its own crypto rules too

Michael Selig, who chairs the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), said the commission would move forward on crypto regulations if the CLARITY Act fails to pass the Senate. Selig said he had already directed staff to allow registered and non-registered entities to offer “crypto asset trading on a leveraged or margined basis” and explore developer protections.

“We’re going to give CLARITY its breathing room for a vote, but if the Democrats cannot support a bipartisan work product, which reflects compromises from both sides of the aisle, and ultimately send a fair version of the bill to the President’s desk, then rest assured, I will direct CFTC staff to move swiftly to propose these new rules for the industry,” said Selig.

Winners and Losers

At the end of the week, Bitcoin (BTC) is up 23.5% to trade at $77,559, Ethereum (ETH) is up 31.1% to trade at $2,456 and XRP (XRP) is up 53.3% to $1.52. The total market cap is at $2.63 trillion according to CoinMarketCap.

Among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin winners of the week are Pump.fun (PUMP) with a 98.9% gain, Ethena (ENA) on 98.3%, and Stacks (STX) on 94.8%.

The top three altcoin losers of the week are JUST (JST) which was down 4.3%, MemeCore (M) down 2.9% and Sun (SUN) down 1%.

Top Prediction of the Week

Standard Chartered says $100K Bitcoin year-end call may be ‘too low’

Bitcoin may move toward its all-time high of $126,000 before the end of the year, with the recovery potentially accelerating after Oct. 6, according to Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered.

Kendrick said in a Friday note that the latest rally has been driven largely by short liquidations, while inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have also started to recover. He said low open interest could leave room for more investors to return as prices rise.

“For the first time this year there is now a risk my end year forecast (of USD100k) is too low,” Kendrick wrote.

Top FUD of the Week

Most Americans say Trump family crypto investments are not ‘appropriate’

A new poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos found that a majority of respondents in the US believed it was not “appropriate” for US President Donald Trump and his family to earn billions through cryptocurrency investments while in office. 

According to the results of the poll of 1,166 people between Aug. 14-17, 63% of the respondents said it wasn’t appropriate for Trump and his family to earn money from crypto. Notably, 69% of Republicans polled said it was appropriate, while an overwhelming majority of Democrats, 92%, responded negatively.

Bitget CEO sees Bitcoin near current levels at year-end, doubts US will buy BTC

Bitget CEO Gracy Chen expects Bitcoin to remain broadly around current levels through the end of the year despite its recent surge, citing interest rates and broader macroeconomic conditions as key factors shaping the cryptocurrency’s outlook.

Cointelegraph host interviews Bitget CEO Gracy Chen. Source: Trade Secrets

She pointed to the possibility of higher interest rates as one of a number of factors that could pressure prices.

“If any of that happens, the price should go down, at least theoretically,” Chen said, adding that BTC has become increasingly integrated with traditional finance and sensitive to broader macroeconomic conditions.

Chen predicted that BTC could finish the year $10,000 to $20,000 above or below current levels.

MANTRA token sinks 18% to record low amid blockchain halt

MANTRA’s native token sank to an all-time low of $0.004126 around 11:00 pm UTC on Thursday shortly before MANTRA Chain stopped producing blocks and its team announced a precautionary halt over an unexplained incident.

MANTRA said Friday it was “aware of an incident affecting MANTRA Chain” and had halted the network as a precaution while it investigated. “We don’t have a root cause or timeline to share yet,” the project said, adding that all endpoints and transactions were frozen. 

The halt prevents assets from moving on MANTRA Chain and has prompted affected exchanges to pause deposits and withdrawals, with no timeline given for either service to resume. On Aug. 22 MANTRA said it the “vulnerability in the Cosmos-EVM module has been fixed, the network has resumed, and no user funds were affected.”