Through the Red Sea

Oil prices surge: Yesterday, Houthi terrorists struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, sending oil prices up to $99 a barrel. The strikes “threatened to broaden the conflict by creating a second choke point on global shipping, in addition to the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively closed,” per The New York Times.

President Donald Trump, too, is escalating: “From this point forward, any time the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, whether it be by Missile, Rocket, Drone, or any other device or weapon, the United States will bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT, including those located next to, or in, the Capital City of Tehran,” he wrote on Truth Social. “Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

Technically, since the Houthis are not Iran (just backed by them), and since the Saudi strike wasn’t in the Strait of Hormuz but in the Red Sea, yesterday’s attack probably won’t warrant a U.S. bombing. But it’s a very bad sign that a second shipping corridor—the Bab al-Mandab Strait—is now threatened, as this is likely to send oil prices surging even higher.

“On Tuesday, [Trump] said U.S. military forces would likely attack Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain, the underground site where Israeli intelligence believes Iran has buried advanced nuclear-enrichment centrifuges, ‘pretty soon,'” reports The Wall Street Journal. “Trump’s threats come days after Iran launched a barrage of missile and drone attacks against U.S. bases in Jordan. Three soldiers were killed there in a strike that hit containerized housing units where the troops lived and slept. A fourth servicemember was killed last week in Iraq during a controlled detonation of unexploded ordnance from a downed Iranian drone.”

People are already souring on the war: “Half of President Donald Trump’s MAGA base thought Iran’s war was worth its economic costs in May. Now, just a little more than a third do,” reports Politico. “Additionally, 37 percent of self-identified MAGA Trump voters say the U.S. should continue its involvement only if it doesn’t increase costs, up from 29 percent who said the same in May, according to the survey, conducted by independent polling firm Public First. Nearly 1 in 5 MAGA voters believe that the U.S. should end its war in Iran, regardless of the costs.”

It looks likely to get much worse before it gets better.

Scenes from New York: “The Commission on Government Efficiency, which the mayor formed in January, has proposed expediting the time it takes to build new street safety projects by 33%. It’s one of the five ballot questions the commission is expected to approve on Thursday that aim to speed up work by—and with—the city. The proposals will appear on voters’ ballots in November,” reports Gothamist. “Altogether, the commission settled on five proposals that it said will simplify the process to secure permits for outdoor dining, shorten the timeframe for the city’s contracting and procurement process, fast-track projects on city-owned land whether its for a street or a building, simplify the building permit process and create targets for contributions to the city’s rainy day fund to prepare for an economic downturn.”

QUICK HITS

• “Florida’s fish and wildlife officials were caught using law-enforcement tools to probe everyday citizens who’d criticized the agency,” writes Scott Maxwell for The Orlando Sentinel.
• “The Supreme Court agreed last month to hear a case that asks a remarkable question: Can the government require a homeowner to obtain a permit before inviting friends to his house for prayer?” reports The Washington Post. “Grand v. City of University Heights centers on an Orthodox Jewish minyan—a prayer quorum consisting of at least 10 adult men—but the legal principles at stake extend well beyond one faith. In January 2021, Daniel Grand, an Orthodox Jewish homeowner in University Heights, Ohio, emailed roughly a dozen friends inviting them to his house for a Shabbat minyan. Soon afterward, a neighbor informed the city about Grand’s email, complaining and asking the mayor to ‘put a stop to this.’ Under the city’s zoning ordinance, ‘houses of worship’ require a special-use permit. Acting on the complaint, the mayor called Grand regarding what he described as an ‘urgent matter.’ Later that day, a city official ordered Grand to ‘immediately cease and desist’ using his home as a ‘place of religious assembly’ until he obtained the permit. Although Grand maintained that hosting a minyan in his home did not make it a house of worship, he complied. He canceled the gathering and applied for the permit the city demanded. What followed was a contentious zoning process.” (They should try to get my ass, because I host bible study all the time.)
• Back in 2018, the Supreme Court struck down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) in Murphy v. NCAA, allowing states to once again legalize sports betting. So how bad is the gambling situation now? A new paper says…very bad.

The main finding: Sports betting does not merely replace other entertainment spending. Instead, it crowds out saving and increases borrowing.

For many households, the money deposited into betting apps comes directly from their financial cushion.

— Jason Kotter (@JasonKotter) July 22, 2026

Lower-income households bet a much larger share of their income. In our data, they devote roughly 2–3x as much of their income to betting as higher-income households. That gap has widened over time. pic.twitter.com/nnbO2jOH0r

— Jason Kotter (@JasonKotter) July 22, 2026

• I’m calling it here, and it brings me no pleasure to report, but I’m pretty sure it’s AOC time:

AOC leading in NH per UNH poll

AOC 22%
Pete: 21%
Mark Kelly 9%
Newsom: 8%
Bernie: 6% (have to imagine a lot of these votes would go to AOC)
Kamala: 5%https://t.co/wZWqaWGGbs pic.twitter.com/vQUKR7y5AL

— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) July 22, 2026