Republican Lawmaker Proposes Prediction Markets Insider Trading Ban, Not Including White House Officials

Wisconsin Representative Bryan Steil, who chairs the House subcommittee on digital assets, introduced a law to prevent certain public officials from “wagering on public policy issues and political outcomes,” notably without mentioning lawmakers in the White House.

In a Thursday notice, Steil said he had introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act, which could bar “members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children” from using policy-aligned event contracts on prediction markets platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. The bill proposed that elected officials in violation pay a $2,000 fee or 10% of the value of the prohibited bets on the platforms.

Source: Committee on House Administration

The proposed law did not specifically bar US lawmakers from using prediction markets platforms or making bets on sporting events, but prohibited wagers on specific government policies, government actions and “political outcomes,” presumably including election results. If passed by Congress and signed into law by the president, the law could take effect in 180 days after enactment.

Steil’s bill was the latest attempt by members of Congress to address lawmakers potentially using insider information to profit on event contracts. The issue drew attention from many in the public after an incident involving a soldier who allegedly made more than $400,000 betting on the removal of Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro, who was ousted by US forces in January.

Related: Polymarket weighs KYC requirements amid global crackdown on prediction markets

Although the proposed law follows attempts from other lawmakers to crack down on insider trading on prediction markets, Steil’s legislation did not extend to White House officials, including President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance. Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., is a strategic adviser to Kalshi and an adviser to Polymarket, which was also a sponsor of the UFC Freedom 250 event at the White House on Sunday. 

Cointelegraph reached out to Steil’s office for comment but did not receive an immediate response.

Federal regulator still fighting for control of prediction markets

Under Trump, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and its chair Michael Selig have claimed that the federal agency has “exclusive jurisdiction” in the regulation and enforcement around prediction markets. The CFTC has already filed multiple lawsuits against state-level authorities restricting or banning the platforms, claiming that under the Commodity Exchange Act, event contracts can be regulated as “swaps” and not bets.

Some experts believe that the legal fight could be headed to the Supreme Court next.

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