Rate Cuts, Options Expiry Put Bitcoin at a Crossroads

Crypto faces a critical test this week as the quarterly options expiry collides with a key U.S. inflation reading, a convergence that could determine whether the rally gains momentum or falters.

Roughly, $22.3 billion in crypto options will expire as the third quarter comes to a close on Friday, according to options exchange Deribit. Out of which, Bitcoin options with a notional value of $17.06 billion are set to expire.

Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at options analytics platform Amberdata, told Decrypt that the current Bitcoin expiration cycle is “the largest on the board.”

Dealer positioning shows “a lot of short gamma at $109,000 and $108,000,” he said, pointing to a situation that requires those price levels to hold to prevent a sharp move downward.

Bitcoin’s short-term moves depend heavily on options dealers and large institutions that hedge their positions in real-time. Their exposure to “gamma,” a measure of how quickly hedges must adjust, can either amplify price swings or help steady them.

A short gamma position means dealers could be forced to sell into a declining market, exacerbating a drop.

Data shows that $108,000 has become critical for Bitcoin traders. A failure to hold above this level could trigger an automated selling cascade, independent of the August Core PCE release, Decrypt was told.

Considering the dealer’s short gamma positioning and volatility around 35%, Magadini expects a drop below $108,000 to trigger a “two standard deviation move to $96,000,” especially if the markets are weak.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $109,100, having clocked a 3.8% loss on Thursday. In total, the top crypto has shed 6.50% over the past week, CoinGecko data shows.

All eyes are now on the Core PCE release, scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET today, which remains sticky around 3%. The month-over-month forecasts sit around 0.2%, slightly lower than last month’s 0.3%.

A hotter-than-expected release could strengthen the dollar’s recent bounce and exacerbate Bitcoin’s ongoing correction, experts previously told Decrypt.  

However, a softer Core PCE could form a “pin from options expiry” that could “loosen and allow a sharp upside move,” Maja Vujinovic, CEO and Co-Founder of Digital Assets at FG Nexus, a Nasdaq-listed company focused on accumulating and generating yield on Ethereum, told Decrypt.

Despite the short-term, jumpy reaction around inflation report releases, she expects a constructive fourth quarter for crypto markets, driven by demand for spot exchange-traded funds and improving liquidity. 

Magadini echoed Vujinovic’s outlook, noting that there is downside risk in the short term, driven by uncertainty over the Fed’s path and weakness in risk assets. 

“Long-term, I expect prices to be drastically higher…should Fed inflation fighting stop…I could easily see Bitcoin start to trade above $250,000.”

Options data also support Bitcoin’s long-term bullish sentiment, evidenced by heavy buying of year-end call options with $120,000 and $140,000 strikes.