Prediction Markets Abandon Cheap Oil as Brent Passes $100

Brent crude traded at $101.09 on Wednesday morning, up 3.2% on the day and above $100 for the first time in six weeks, with West Texas Intermediate at $96.27. Prediction market traders have moved with it, and hard.

The trigger was a weekend and a half of escalation. Saudi officials say Houthi rebels attacked Saudi oil facilities early Tuesday, wounding 73. U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian oil tankers the same day, after hitting three others on Saturday, in response to Iranian ballistic missile attacks on an American warship.

On Myriad, which asks whether crude reaches $120 or falls to $55 first, the $120 side sits at 56.5%, up 15.1 points. The two sides had traded within a few points of each other since mid-August, with $55 ahead for most of that stretch. They crossed at the start of September and have not crossed back. The market has taken $12.7 million in volume since March. (Diclosure: Myriad is a prediction market owned by Dastan, Decrypt’s parent company)

The downside emptied out

The sharper move is on Polymarket, where a ladder of WTI price targets for September has repriced across the board. WTI touching $100 this month is at 59%, up nine points. Reaching $105 is at 30%, up 25. Reaching $90 sits at 71%, up 21.

The bottom fell out of the other direction. The market on WTI dropping to $85 is down 33 points to 39%, and every rung below it is in single digits. The $55 line, which Myriad still prices at 44.8% as an eventual outcome, is at 1% on Polymarket for this month. The two are asking different questions: Myriad’s runs until one target is hit, with no deadline, while Polymarket’s closes at the end of September.

Pump prices are following. Diesel hit a record $5.94 a gallon on Wednesday, beating the high set last week, and gasoline averaged $4.22, weeks before midterm elections in which Republicans are already struggling to campaign on affordability.