Ohio’s Democrat Momentum

No longer so red: Long a swing state, Ohio went for President Donald Trump back in 2016, in 2020, and in 2024. Now, with midterms approaching, it looks likely to vote blue again, and there are early indicators that Republicans have failed to win over Ohio’s working-class voters in particular.

“After the first days of early voting in Ohio, a state that could help determine control of the Senate, there are clear signs Democrats are more enthusiastic to vote,” reports CNN. “So far, affiliated Democrats make up larger shares of pre-election voters than they did two years ago, even in the most Republican parts of the state. At this point in 2024, Republicans had a 30-percentage point lead over Democrats in counties that voted for President Donald Trump by 20 points or more, according to data from the Ohio Secretary of State. This year, that’s shrunk to just five points.”

Take this data with a grain of salt: It is just early-voter data.

But this is all rather high-stakes because Republicans are defending a Senate seat, as well as the governor’s office. Two races for House seats are considered toss-ups. The conventional wisdom has been that Ohio is now solidly red, with three cycles of presidential election data to support that. But it’s possible Trump has pissed off the voters who supported him to such a degree that Ohio will be sent back into swing-state territory.

“God knows we didn’t vote for this,” one voter—a pastor who went for Trump, then Biden, then Trump—told Reuters, referring to inflation. Other voters wonder about the decline in manufacturing jobs and the fact that the president has paid lip service to these problems but done very little to actually improve people’s circumstances.

On Monday, Trump rallied in support of Sen. Jon Husted, who hopes to retain his seat. In the Mahoning Valley, the president announced a few new, uh, incentives to voters: a Defense Department facility based in Cleveland, and promises that a heat provider for Youngstown remained open. “The Youngstown area for decades used to vote Democrat, and then you ran for office in 2016 and flipped it red forever,” said Husted in his speech. “Is that right, folks?”

OpenAI arrest: The FBI arrested a Saudi national who worked at OpenAI “and charged him with installing a hidden audio recording ‌device in an executive conference room,” per the Department of Justice. Abdulrahman Alfozan had worked as an engineer at OpenAI since July 2025, in the San Francisco office. The company found the recording device “plugged into a USB port on the ⁠back of a television in an executive conference room,” per Reuters. The device had a microphone and allegedly connected to a camera; the data it stored was encrypted.

“At this time, we have no indications of this individual inappropriately accessing or exfiltrating ​model weights, source code, or customer data. The employee was terminated,” said OpenAI. It’s not clear who Alfozan may have been working for or with; he has been a permanent resident of the U.S. since 2020, with stints at Meta and Microsoft.

“If convicted, Alfozan faces up to ⁠five years in prison, a $250,000 fine and three years of supervised release,” notes Reuters.

Scenes from New York: Mayor Zohran Mamdani has reportedly reached a deal with the City Council to ban horse carriages in the city, per Politico. I’ll admit, I don’t really care, but I’m intrigued by the fact that the reason this has taken so long to get through has been because the union representing the carriage-drivers has been so successful at advocating for its members’ interests.

QUICK HITS

• Pope Leo XIV was diagnosed with lung cancer, said the Vatican yesterday. He underwent a successful surgery, and there’s no additional information about prognosis at this time.
• Daniel Cox’s new book, Generation Uncoupled, makes the case “that problems with dating and romantic partnership are downstream from the decades-long deterioration of American social and civic life.” Cox tells Derek Thompson (in a wonderful interview worth checking out): “There’s a cultural dimension to all of this, as well. It’s not entirely that young people have fewer social opportunities, but that they are encouraged to prioritize their own personal experiences and expression. On social media, self-optimization culture teaches young people that the most coveted rewards in life are secured through individual effort and ambition alone. There is a fear that our relational obligations can work against these goals by restricting our autonomy. It explains why more young people worry about what marriage and parenthood will require of them, rather than the benefits they offer. Not surprisingly, rates of family estrangement are at record highs, prenuptial agreements are more popular than ever, and most young people now feel that obtaining a divorce should be made easier.” This obsession with self-actualization, or controlling one’s circumstances, as well as risk-aversion, is something I’ll be covering a bit in my book, City Without Children. This culture is shaping not only our decision to (not) couple up and get married, but also our decision to delay having kids, and how we parent them once they’re here.
• “The bond-market turbulence last month seeped into results as the banks each posted weaker-than-expected revenue from their businesses trading bonds on behalf of clients, and dealmaking slowed more than they had anticipated,” reports The Wall Street Journal. “In a somewhat rare occurrence, JPMorgan missed analysts’ expectations.”
• “The White House has asked Kimberly Guilfoyle, the ambassador to Greece, to resign, new White House press secretary Katie Zacharia told reporters on Tuesday, a day after President Donald Trump said he was considering firing her after allegations she asked a political donor for $100,000 to pay her personal American Express bill,” reports The Washington Post.
• The FIRE (“financial independence, retire early”) people are now saying the quiet part out loud: that living on canned lentils well into your 40s is practically the same as being imprisoned.

This is the greatest post in the history of FIRE Reddit. Perfection. pic.twitter.com/dh1tesicfi

— Conservative Dividend Investing (@CDInewsletter) October 13, 2026

“Blessed” is a useful religious concept that has no adequate secular equivalent

“I was lucky” almost wholly fails to convey the weight and sentiment of providence that comes when things go better than you had any right to hope

— Jack (@tracewoodgrains) October 13, 2026