Odds against Interest Rate Cuts High as New US Fed Chair to be Sworn in

Kevin Warsh is set to be sworn in as the next chair of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors on Friday amid speculation about whether he’ll do what US President Donald Trump hopes he does: Lower interest rates once in office.

On Wednesday, the US Senate voted largely along party lines to confirm Warsh as the next Fed chair, succeeding Jerome Powell. While Trump nominated both Fed governors in different terms, the president repeatedly threatened to fire Powell in recent months, saying that the Fed chair “should be lowering interest rates.”

Source: Kalshi

With Warsh expected to assume his role as Fed chair on Friday, prediction market platforms like Kalshi are offering users 38.2% chances on event contracts betting that the central bank will lower interest rates before 2027, dropping from 96% in February. In contrast, CME FedWatch shows a 98.8% probability that the Fed would not change its interest rates, currently at 3.50% to 3.75%, until the end of June, with a more than 94% chance of the same through July.

As Fed chair, Warsh will have significant influence in helping policy makers determine federal interest rates. With Powell, Trump repeatedly called for the Fed chair to cut rates on social media and said in April he would be disappointed if Warsh didn’t immediately move to do the same if confirmed. The next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, at which interest rates could be changed, is scheduled for June 16. 

Related: Bitcoin, stocks risk ‘months’ of losses as Kevin Warsh Becomes Fed chair

At Warsh’s confirmation hearing in the Senate Banking Committee, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren said confirming him could result in the Fed “granting special accounts to [the Trump family’s] crypto company or bailouts to his friends on Wall Street if they get into trouble.” Warsh disclosed more than $100 million in assets ahead of the April hearing, including investments in AI and crypto companies.

US lawmakers awaiting CFTC nominations

With Warsh set to be sworn in on Friday, lawmakers are still looking to Trump to announce nominations for the US federal commodities regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Since December, the CFTC has been led solely by Trump’s pick Michael Selig, who took over from acting chair Caroline Pham. The federal regulator has since taken a strong position on attempting to exclusively oversee prediction markets platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket amid US state authorities filing lawsuits against the companies over sports betting.

On Friday, the Republican and Democratic leaders of the House Committee on Agriculture called on Trump to “nominate a full panel” of CFTC commissioners, citing “urgent regulatory issues.” Specifically, the lawmakers voiced concerns about CFTC rulemaking if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY), a bill to establish market structure for cryptocurrencies, became law.

Magazine: ETH stalls at $2.4K five times, SOL to rally to $120: Market Moves