JPMorgan sees Hyperliquid partnership weighing on Circle, Coinbase

Hyperliquid is one of crypto’s fastest-growing trading venues and the leading decentralized perpetual futures exchange. The platform processed more than $150 billion in trading volume in July alone, while its volume relative to Binance climbed to 11.5%, underscoring its growing share of the derivatives market. USDC balances on Hyperliquid have swelled to roughly $6 billion, making it an increasingly important distribution channel for the stablecoin.

Under the new arrangement, Coinbase will classify USDC on Hyperliquid as “on-platform,” collecting the income generated by reserves and paying 90% of it to Hyperliquid. JPMorgan estimated Coinbase previously split nearly all of the revenue evenly with Circle.

The bank cut earnings estimates for both companies, citing the Hyperliquid agreement and weaker crypto markets, though it expects higher interest rates to provide some support for USDC-related revenue over the longer term.

USDC has also lost momentum in recent months. Its circulating supply has fallen to about $73 billion from nearly $80 billion in March, part of a broader $10 billion contraction in the stablecoin market since May as crypto trading activity cooled and new regulated rivals chipped away at the dominance of USDC and Tether’s USDT.

Japanese investment bank Mizuho said in a report last week that Circle’s final approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish First National Digital Currency Bank is a positive milestone, but investors may be overestimating its significance.