Iran War Tests Trump — and a Vulnerable China

“Tonight,” said Donald Trump to the people of Iran on 28 February, “bombs will be dropping everywhere. … When we are finished, take over your government.” These words seemed to evoke a single apocalyptic night, after which the Iranian people would emerge from their shelters, blinking in the light of a new day, to discover that the IRGC, the Artesh, the Basij, and the hated morality police were all buried under the rubble, America’s planes had departed, and Iran was free at last.

Four weeks was the President’s actual timeline, but that’s looking doubtful now. Trump was warned that the Iranian regime might close the Strait of Hormuz, but after the empty threats of June 2025, he didn’t believe they would actually do it. The job would be finished and American forces would be out of Iran by 31 March, he predicted, which is when he would board Air Force One and head for Beijing, armed with new leverage for his crucial summit with Xi Jinping.

That meeting is no longer scheduled for 31 March. First, Trump threatened to postpone the trip if the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) did not send warships to unblock Hormuz. Then he announced a delay of “a month or so.” Next the delay was stretched to “at least five or six weeks.” The president surely never thought the PLA navy would assist the United States in the Strait, but he needed an excuse not to meet. Operation Epic Fury was, after all, a strategic move against Beijing; an attempt to strengthen Washington’s relative position in this new Cold War. Trump needs to get out of his Persian quagmire before he touches down in the Chinese capital.