Hot inflation data pours cold water on Federal Reserve rate cut hopes

U.S. inflation data came in hotter than expected on Wednesday, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady at 350-375bps not only at its June 17 meeting, but also likely through the end of the year.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year rose 3.8% in April, according to a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists’ forecasts had been for a rise of 3.7% following March’s 3.3% increase.

On a month-over-month basis, CPI rose 0.6%, above expectations of 0.3% and up from March’s 0.2%.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.4% in April versus forecasts of 0.2% and March’s 0.3%. Year-over-year core CPI was higher by 2.8% versus forecasts of 2.7% and March’s 2.6%.

Under pressure this morning, bitcoin BTC$80,966.57 traded at $80,700 following the report, down 1.2% over the past 24 hours.

U.S. stock index futures were down across the board, and the 10-year treasury yield came in higher at 4.44%. WTI crude oil is posing a threat to the markets, and is higher by 3% on the day at $101.

Ahead of the CPI data, markets were pricing in a 98% probability that the Federal Reserve would leave interest rates unchanged at its March meeting, according to the CME Fed Watch tool.

Kevin Warsh is set to be confirmed as the next Federal Reserve Chair this week, as he is expected to take over from Jerome Powell on May 15.