Gemini Gets CFTC Approval to Launch Prediction Markets in US

Gemini is entering the prediction markets space. 

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission granted a Designated Contract Market license to Gemini Titan, an affiliate of the crypto exchange’s Gemini Space Station, Inc., enabling the exchange to offer event contracts to American customers.

“Today’s approval marks the culmination of a five-year licensing process and the beginning of a new chapter for Gemini,” CEO Tyler Winklevoss said in a statement, crediting the Trump administration for “ending the Biden administration’s war on crypto.”

Gemini is now set to compete with other prediction market giants Kalshi and Polymarket, with the latter receiving CFTC clearance last month to return to U.S. operations after being pushed offshore in 2022. 

The approval is part of a growing regulatory acceptance of prediction markets, which have seen a surge in popularity this year.

Gemini customers will soon be able to trade event contracts through the exchange’s web interface using existing USD balances, with mobile app functionality to follow. 

Sample markets could include questions like whether Bitcoin will end the year above $200,000 or whether specific regulatory outcomes will materialize, according to the statement.

Beyond prediction markets, the company plans to expand into crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts, which have gained significant traction in Asian markets but remain primarily unavailable to U.S. traders.

“Prediction markets have the potential to be as big or bigger than traditional capital markets. Acting Chairman Pham understands this vision and its importance,” Cameron Winklevoss, Gemini’s President, said in the statement.

The CFTC, under Acting Chairman Caroline Pham, has adopted a more permissive stance toward prediction markets compared to previous administrations. 

On Wednesday, Pham announced the first CEO Innovation Council, which includes Tyler Winklevoss, along with executives from Polymarket, Kalshi, Nasdaq, and CME Group.

In Myriad Markets, 80% of users favor prediction markets as the crypto segment with the most upside potential.

Gemini’s stock spiked about 13.7% in after-hours trading and is down 70% from its opening IPO price.

(Disclaimer: Myriad is owned by Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan.)