Did Everyone Lose?

Docusign diplomacy: A digital preliminary memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran has been signed, leading to an opening of the Strait of Hormuz and a 60-day pause in fighting while final details get hashed out.

On Friday, a more formal signing will take place, and negotiations will begin on the more challenging details of the agreement.

MOU SIGNED, PER SENIOR U.S. OFFICIAL
OFFICIAL SAYS:
* TRUMP, VANCE SIGNED MOU, SO DID IRANIAN PARLIAMENTARY SPEAKER
* DEAL PROVIDES FOR IMMEDIATE OPENING OF STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND LIFTING OF U.S. BLOCKADE ON IRAN
* DETAILS OF AGREEMENT WILL BE PUT OUT WITHIN NEXT 24-48 HOURS
*…

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) June 15, 2026

“We are prepared to release frozen funds and we are prepared to relieve sanctions, and we’ll do some small gestures of that in the beginning if they make some small gestures to us that show that they’re willing to meet their commitments as well,” a U.S. official told Reuters.

“In diplomatic terms, this agreement is an exit ramp from a costly and unpopular war, not a victory parade,” writes David Ignatius at The Washington Post. “The deal falls far short of President Donald Trump’s early talk of regime change and unconditional surrender.” Yes, yes. But it’s hard to know, from where we are right now, the degree to which this really will set back Iran and its attainment of a nuclear weapon.

We still don’t know what types of restrictions Iran will agree to with regard to its nuclear program, nor do we know what Israel will do with regard to Hezbollah and the fighting in southern Lebanon. We don’t know how U.S.-Israeli relations will be impacted in the long run. (Tensions between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have been rather high during these last few weeks.) We don’t know whether Iran will, in fact, keep the Strait of Hormuz open, or whether we’ll see it mess around with the strait to gain leverage over the U.S. once again.

“Months of fighting revealed that multiple countries can impose costs,” wrote Foreign Policy‘s Will Todman, “but none can impose order.”

“The tactical and operational successes that the U.S. and Israeli militaries achieved masked a deeper strategic defeat, with neither securing the political objectives cited to justify the war in the first place,” argued Todman. “The Iranian regime survived and emerged more hard-line, and it discovered a new, powerful negotiating chip in closing the Strait of Hormuz.” But even bigger picture: “The war did not produce a clear victor or a more stable regional order. Instead, it accelerated fragmentation, deepened insecurity, and imposed costs on every key regional and global power involved, including Iran, the Arab Gulf states, Russia, and China. The war demonstrated that no state will be able to navigate the new era of global disorder unscathed.”

Scenes from New York: Appreciating my compatriots:

Red Hook is just built different pic.twitter.com/gr7vcaTT4h

— Liz Wolfe (@LizWolfeReason) June 15, 2026

QUICK HITS

• “Chipmaking giant Nvidia Corp. sold $25 billion of high-grade bonds, joining a wave of jumbo debt offerings from tech heavyweights as investors clamor to get exposure to the artificial intelligence boom,” reports Bloomberg. “The deal, priced on Monday, attracted as much as $85 billion of orders or more than three times the size of the bond, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. Nvidia’s first offering since 2021 was boosted from an initial target of about $20 billion, underscoring strong investor demand.”
• “It can often seem like the Bidens are divorced from reality, exemplified by their ability to claim with a straight face that the former president was not a Washington insider,” writes Ben Terris in New York magazine. “But they believe they can make a case for his legacy—as long as they can somehow disentangle it from Biden’s ruinous decision to run for a second term.”
• “On July 4th, at The Lincoln Memorial and Washington Monument, in beautiful and safe Washington D.C., we are going to host the most spectacular TRUMP RALLY of them all, a ‘TRIBUTE TO AMERICA,'” wrote Trump on Truth Social yesterday. “Starting at 7 P.M. EST, this HUGE Celebration will honor our Country’s People, Spirit, Strength, Resolve, and Triumphs. With the backdrop of the Lincoln Memorial and surrounding the beautifully new Reflecting Pool, more than 300 Members of our strong and talented Military Bands, Orchestras, and Ceremonial Units, will perform Patriotic Melodies and American Classics, and my Playlist (We will have none of those people that put you to sleep and constantly complain!), as we celebrate our Country, and Rally into the next 250 years.” I don’t tend to be up in arms about Trump ridiculousness when it’s not really hurting anyone, but I do find this to be a little disrespectful to the Founders. I would rather celebrate America than Trump, and I fear this will become more about the self-styled emperor than about 250 years of this great country.
• A good take on the Anthropic saga:

Because this is happening to Anthropic, the temptation for many will be to say: Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. They have relentlessly raised the regulatory temperature in Washington by inviting far-reaching controls of frontier models. They made this bed and now they have… https://t.co/2kcQqdRhRz

— Adam Thierer (@AdamThierer) June 13, 2026