Crypto ticks up as US-Iran peace deal odds climb

Crypto prices were slightly higher on Monday amid rising odds in prediction markets for a near-term U.S.-Iran peace deal, as Iranian negotiators arrived in Doha for talks.

Bitcoin gained 1.6% in 24 hours to $77,500, ether rose 1.4%, and the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) added 1.56%.

Traders on Polymarket pushed the probability of a permanent deal this month to 37%, up from roughly 14% on Friday. The odds for a deal are at 46% by early June and 72% by the end of July. The market has drawn roughly $178 million in volume.

The move follows a Truth Social post from President Trump on Saturday saying the framework agreement was “subject to finalization.” Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati arrived in Doha earlier today for talks, per CNN.

A diplomat briefed on the visit told CNN that the agenda is focused on the Strait of Hormuz and highly enriched uranium. Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign ministry has described the deal as a memorandum of understanding in a first phase, with broader talks over 30 to 60 days, CNBC reported. Pakistan and Qatar are mediating.

The Strait of Hormuz has been largely blockaded since the U.S. and Israel struck Iran on February 28, though traffic has partially resumed in recent days.

Crude oil fell 5.4% to $91.30 per barrel. Gold rose 1.35% to $4,570 per ounce. The dollar weakened, with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) falling around 0.3%.

Trump’s tone remains conditional. “It will only be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all — Back to the Battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before,” he wrote Monday.

Read more: Bitcoin trades above $77,000 as oil’s 5% slide pushes Asian equities higher