Crypto Biz: Bitcoin Rally Lifts Crypto Stocks, Circle and Solana

Bitcoin’s return above $80,000 is exposing just how much the crypto industry now runs through traditional capital markets. Michael Saylor’s Strategy needs a receptive market to finance its Bitcoin machine (BTC), Circle’s outlook increasingly resembles a bet on the growth of dollar-denominated financial infrastructure and Treasury bond buybacks helped provide the backdrop for the latest surge in crypto equities.

This week’s Crypto Biz looks at how that relationship is reshaping the companies, balance sheets and networks behind the market’s rebound.

Bitcoin rally sends crypto stocks soaring

Bitcoin’s rally above $80,000 lifted crypto stocks as miners and digital asset treasury companies posted double-digit gains, tracking a broader recovery fueled by the US Treasury’s plan to double certain long-dated bond buybacks.

Canaan, MARA Holdings and Strive were among the biggest gainers over the past week, while Coinbase and Robinhood also rallied. Bitcoin extended its weekly advance past 23%, while Ether gained nearly 30% to trade above $2,500, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Support also came from President Trump renewing calls for Congress to pass the CLARITY Act, though the bill remains stalled after lawmakers failed to advance it before the August recess. The bill could establish clearer rules for US crypto markets, while Trump separately revived the prospect of government Bitcoin purchases, though neither outcome is assured.

Bernstein bets on fresh USDC growth cycle

Bernstein analysts are bullish on Circle, arguing that a new growth cycle for its USDC stablecoin could provide a significant boost over the next 12 months as supply growth picks up again.

In a Monday research note, the firm said USDC supply increased by roughly $2 billion in seven days, ending a six-month period of stagnant or declining growth. Bernstein maintained its Outperform rating on Circle (CRCL) and a $140 price target, implying roughly 60% upside. Circle shares have risen about 40% over the past month.

Analysts said the next leg of growth could be driven by renewed crypto momentum, US regulatory clarity, tokenized capital markets and broader payments adoption, with early signs of demand from AI agents. USDC’s share of adjusted transaction volume rose from roughly 40% in 2025 to over 60% so far in 2026, overtaking Tether’s USDt on that measure.

Circle shares have been volatile since the company’s June 2025 IPO, when the stock was priced at $31. After an initial post-IPO surge, shares fell back toward that level by November 2025 at the onset of the crypto market downturn. 

USDC’s share of stablecoin transaction volume has grown sharply. Source: Bernstein

Strategy’s real risk is capital market access, not Bitcoin price

A Regime Intelligence report finds that Strategy’s chief vulnerability is not a Bitcoin price crash but losing access to capital markets, which could threaten its ability to service $1.76 billion in annual obligations without selling BTC.

Strategy’s 840,447 BTC backs $22 billion in debt and preferred claims, with no margin calls tied to Bitcoin’s price, according to the report. Its stress tests suggest Bitcoin would need to fall 96% for the company’s holdings to no longer cover its convertible notes. Strategy also has cash reserves equal to 2.6 times its annual obligations, while its Bitcoin holdings are worth $66.7 billion against a cost basis of $63.36 billion.

“Even if equities unraveled, Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings put it in a good situation to weather most any storm. The company is holding far more Bitcoin than its annual cash obligations,” Komodo Platform co-founder Kadan Stadelmann told Cointelegraph.

The bigger risk emerges if financing conditions deteriorate. A prolonged Bitcoin downturn, combined with a falling Strategy share price and lower mNAV, could make raising fresh capital increasingly difficult, potentially forcing the company to draw down reserves or sell Bitcoin. 

“Strategy’s weakness lies in the need to issue capital to service the structure. If equities markets collapse, the company could have to part ways with Bitcoin as part of its operating structure,” Stadelmann said.

Strategy has sold BTC four times since May, though CEO Phong Le said the company accumulated 25 times more over the same period and plans to resume purchases.

Strategy remains the largest institutional Bitcoin holder, despite selling BTC four times since May. Source: BitcoinTreasuries.NET 

Solana activity hits record as SOL rallies 40%

Solana processed a record 4.2 billion onchain transactions in July, preceding a 40% rally that pushed SOL above $100 for the first time since February, according to onchain data presented by The Kobeissi Letter.

Transaction counts rose 13.5% from June and 91% from December, adding roughly 2 billion transactions over that period. The Kobeissi Letter also cited RWA.xyz data showing that nearly $4 billion worth of real-world assets are now tokenized on Solana, up 11.8% over the past month. Across tracked networks, distributed RWAs have surpassed $38 billion.

The rally accelerated after the US Treasury Department announced plans to double certain long-dated bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation, helping push yields lower and boost risk appetite across crypto markets. Still, SOL’s gains came as part of a broader market recovery, while continued growth in network activity could depend on further RWA adoption and macroeconomic conditions.

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