Chance For Bitcoin Rally To $82K Rises As Global Tensions Cool

Key takeaways:

• Declining oil prices boosted global stock markets, helping lift Bitcoin back to $77,000 amid reduced inflation fears.
• $2.66 billion spot Bitcoin ETF outflows have kept professional crypto traders from turning resoundingly bullish.

Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed the $77,000 level on Monday following a recovery in global stock markets. US President Donald Trump stated on Saturday that talks with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz were progressing, causing crude Brent oil prices to retreat to a five-week low and setting the stage for a potential Bitcoin price run to $82,000.

Crude Brent oil futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView

Global stock markets reacted positively on Monday, with a 2.9% gain in Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index and France’s CAC 40 closing up 1.8%. Reduced inflationary pressure from oil prices caused yields on 5-year Eurozone government bonds to hit 2.64%, their lowest level in five weeks. This prospect of reduced geopolitical risk prompted investors to rotate cash positions back into bonds and equities.

Despite the overall drop in risk perception, professional Bitcoin traders refused to flip bullish.

Bitcoin 3-month futures basis rate. Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin 3-month futures contracts traded at a 2% annualized premium (basis rate) relative to spot markets, indicating a lack of demand for bullish leveraged positions. Under neutral conditions, this indicator typically ranges between 5% and 10% to compensate for capital costs. Still, one could argue that low leverage remains constructive as long as the $74,000 support holds.

Bitcoin spot ETF outflows and Strategy’s focus on reducing debt

Recent outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) likely contributed to the bulls’ lack of confidence.

US-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs daily net flows, USD. Source: SoSoValue

US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $2.66 billion in net outflows since May 7. Despite representing less than 3% of total assets under management, the shift signals fading appeal for institutional investors. Strategy’s (MSTR) pause on Bitcoin acquisitions to repurchase some of its convertible bonds has also fueled concerns.

Strategy (MSTR US) debt profile. Source: Strategy

The company held $8.7 billion in convertible debt with an average maturity of less than 4 years. Strategy’s decision to focus on Bitcoin yield per share might temporarily hold back additions to its 843,738 BTC reserves, but it benefits shareholders by reducing financial leverage and lowering potential share issuance. 

Related: Why is Bitcoin falling despite pro-crypto Kevin Warsh becoming Fed chair?

It remains unclear what could flip Bitcoin traders’ sentiment in a favorable direction, especially as the stock market—particularly the tech sector—continues to dominate investors’ attention. With earnings on the rise, Nvidia’s board approved an additional $80 billion share repurchase program, strengthening investment appeal despite a record-high market capitalization.

Bitcoin’s odds of reclaiming $82,000 likely depend on greater visibility into global economic growth prospects. A potential deal between the US and Iran is certainly a step in the right direction, but as long as spot Bitcoin ETF flows remain negative, investor sentiment may remain subdued.