BTC will fall another 30% to $44,000, prominent miner says

Jiang Zhuoer, one of China’s best-known bitcoin BTC$59,208.80 miners and founder of the LeBit mining pool, predicted that the current bear market will bottom in the fourth quarter at roughly $42,000-$44,000.

The forecast, made in Chinese on X, puts the low some 30% below bitcoin’s current level near $60,700, and rests less on the cryptocurrency’s performance than on Strategy, the largest corporate holder of the token, according to an automated translation.

Jiang analyzed Strategy’s market net asset value (mNAV), the ratio of the company’s stock price to the per-share value of the bitcoin it holds, which has dropped to 0.72. A number above 1 means investors value the company at a premium to its bitcoin stack; below 1 means they value it at less.

Jiang’s figure has the market pricing Strategy about 28% below the bitcoin it owns, a sign of deep pessimism toward the trade.

That reading is close to the 0.7 low Strategy hit on May 11, 2022, during the last bull-to-bear turn, he said, which leads him to think mNAV is near its floor for this cycle.