Bitcoin’s BVIV ‘fear gauge’ has crashed. Still, downside protection isn’t cheap

With bitcoin’s price stubbornly range-bound, the appetite for “directional optionality,” or bets on big price moves in either direction, has evaporated, he said.

Directional optionality involves traders buying call or put options, or both, to profit from anticipated big moves in the underlying asset, but they aren’t doing that now. The demand for bitcoin options has weakened, and this is reflected in BVIV’s decline.

A call option offers a way of buying an asset on the cheap should the price rise, in return for a small upfront cost. A put option offers insurance against price drops in the underlying asset.

Despite the weaker demand, the supply remains elevated. Although every option contract involves both a buyer and a seller, “high supply” in this context means that investors are increasingly writing (selling) options to market makers. Market makers, who are generally market-neutral and provide liquidity, take the opposite side by buying these options.

“A growing number of market participants, including bitcoin miners and corporate treasuries, are utilizing “systematic overwriting programs,” Sears noted.

These strategies involve writing call options to generate yield on their spot BTC holdings, which effectively suppresses volatility by flooding the market with options supply.

The impact of this systematic selling of options on the BVIV is likely accentuated by the typical midyear lull in prices and a cooling spot market. With fewer traders active during the vacation period, realized volatility (how much the price actually moves) has compressed, putting further downward pressure on implied volatility (how much the market expects it to move), Sears said.