Bitcoin Whales and Dolphins Signal Bear Market

An increasing number of Bitcoin holders are seeing their investments turn red as the holding structure continues to deteriorate across major cohorts, according to CryptoQuant. 

Annual balance growth for whale accounts holding between 1,000 and 10,000 Bitcoin (BTC) has turned negative in the fastest contraction this year, CryptoQuant said in a report on Thursday.

Monthly growth has been flat since February, suggesting a shift from accumulation to mild distribution mirroring the 2022 bear market, it added.

Bitcoin “dolphins”, who hold between 100 and 1,000 BTC and are dominated by exchange-traded funds and corporate treasuries, are still growing annually but growth has sharply decelerated.

Monthly balance growth is near zero across both cohorts, with dolphin balances printing successive lower highs since September 2025, CryptoQuant said. Historically, these periods preceded “sustained price weakness,” as these cohorts collectively represent the “primary source of structural demand support in Bitcoin markets,” it added. 

The weakening holding structure is coming as the crypto bear market deepens amid mounting macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds. 

CryptoQuant said that the long-term holder supply reached a fresh record of 15.8 million BTC, but it is a bearish configuration signaling the absence of new market entrants.

HashKey Group researcher Tim Sun told Cointelegraph that since Bitcoin pulled back from its peak in October, “the highest proportion of supply in unrealized loss once approached 50%, marking the highest level since the bottom of the 2022 bear market.”

“If mapped against the on-chain realized price, the absolute bottom territory could be around $40,000 to $45,000.”

However, Sun was optimistic that Bitcoin could see “a more realistic bottom range” around $55,000 to $60,000, assuming that tensions between the US and Iran do not escalate further and the Federal Reserve does not hike rates.

Related: Buy the $72K dip, or jump ship: What will Bitcoin bulls do?

“Ultimately, the formation of a solid market bottom and subsequent recovery still relies on a definitive easing of interest rates and the broader liquidity environment.”

The analyst “Darkfost” said on Thursday that the current range-bound market remains a difficult environment for investors to navigate, “with euphoria emerging whenever BTC approaches the upper end of the range, while pessimism quickly returns as price moves closer to the lower boundary.” 

Around 40% of the BTC supply is at a loss within the current range-bound market structure. Source: Darkfost

He added that at current prices of around $73,700, roughly 40% of the supply was acquired at higher levels and is being held at a loss.

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