Bitcoin Traders see No Bear-Market Bottom Until at Least Q3

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the second week of June with damage control — and new macro lows are still expected this year.

• Traders see a relief bounce coming next for BTC price action, but the bottom, they agree, is not in.
• US inflation data will test markets’ resolve as the US-Iran war drags on.
• Peace-deal pledges by US President Donald Trump do little to stabilize the risk-asset picture.
• Multiple onchain indicators give analysts hope that the worst of the sell-off is over.
• Crypto sentiment dives to some of its lowest levels on record.

Bitcoin bear-market bottom is months away

Bitcoin saw modest relief around its latest weekly close, data from TradingView shows, but among traders, the lack of major good news is conspicuous.

“Previous weekly candle closed very bearish, and left an imbalance at 72.5K. As long as we hold the 59.1K previous weekly low, my final long target for this week is that 72.5K imbalance,” trader Lennaert Snyder wrote in one of his latest analysis posts on X.

BTC/USDT four-hour chart. Source: Lennaert Snyder/X

Trader Mark Cullen warned that even in the event of a relief bounce, the bear-market low was still to come.

“Now $BTC has swept the 60K level, which happened a bit quicker than i had originally anticipated,” he told X followers. 

“I expect we have a bit more sideways and up for the rest of June. I am not expecting the ultimate market low until middle to late Q3.”

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Mark Cullen/X

With slightly different timing, crypto commentator ColinTalksCrypto had similar expectations. BTC/USD, he noted, had closed below a key long-term trend line, the 200-week simple moving average (SMA).

“Thus, we likely get a bounce for a 1-3 months and then a drop to a new low in Q4,” he argued.

ColinTalksCrypto said that Q4 “has high odds of being the cycle bottom.”

BTC/USD one-week chart with 200SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

CPI and PPI inflation to challenge multiyear highs

May US inflation data will add fuel to market nerves this week, with markets already betting on interest-rate hikes.

The May prints of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are slated to reflect the ongoing influence of the US-Iran war on the economy.

Both indexes hit multiyear highs when last updated for April, and the latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows expectations of Federal Reserve policy changing quickly.

“The BASE case shows two rate HIKES by early 2027. There is even a rising 17% chance of 3 rate HIKES by April 2027,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted in analysis late last week. 

“Just months ago, markets saw up to 4 rate CUTS in 2026 alone.”

Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group

As Cointelegraph reported, US stock markets have broadly shaken off inflation risks, hitting repeated all-time highs as tech stocks drive optimism.

That picture is also looking less stable this week as rate-hike nerves filter through. South Korea’s stock market was halted for volatility on Monday after falling 8% at the open.

Korea Composite Index one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

“Something just shifted in the world’s hottest stock market,” Nic Puckrin, founder of crypto platform Coin Bureau, commented on Sunday. 

“Koreans stocks are up 90% this year. But the options chart on the Korea ETF has flipped from bullish bets to downside protection. The is a sign that those still in the trade are no longer confident.”

Market data for iShares South Korea ETF. Source: Nic Puckrin/X

Iran war peace promises fail to tame markets

Coming in tandem with macro pressure are developments in the US-Iran war, which remains an unpredictable market volatility catalyst.

Last week, US President Donald Trump said that the conflict would “work out well,” but the assurances failed to stop new multiyear lows for BTC/USD.

Exchanges of fire in the interim meant that the sense of uncertainty continued.

Quoted by the Financial Times and others on Sunday, Trump again sought to put a positive slant on events, saying that the latest strikes would not impact ongoing peace negotiations.

“The deal may make it on its own merit, or not, but this will not have any effect on it,” he said in a telephone interview.

Bitcoin appeared buoyed by Trump’s words, which included an assertion that Israel would have “no choice” but to accept an Iran deal.

Oil prices gained into the new week, with WTI crude returning above $95 per barrel. 

CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Commenting, crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe warned that the new week would start with a bump.

“I would expect to see prices drop slightly lower going into the Monday open, as the stock markets were falling off a cliff on Friday evening,” he told X followers. 

“After US open, or on Tuesday, this rotates back up and we’ll start to see a glimpse of upwards momentum on Bitcoin.”

BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Indicators point to easing sell pressure

In Bitcoin circles, talk continues to focus on whether BTC has seen its bear-market bottom with the latest dip below $60,000.

Last week, Cointelegraph reported on an analysis concluding that most prerequisites for a market rebound were already in place.

In its latest research, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant added to the list of reasons why the worst of the rout should be over.

“Together, these indicators suggest that speculative excess has largely been removed from the system,” contributor XWIN Japan wrote in a QuickTake blog post. 

“Market sentiment has shifted from euphoria to caution, and investors are entering a period of patience and accumulation.”

The three indicators in question are the spent out profit ratio (SOPR) for long-term (LTH) and short-term (STH) investors, along with the overall BTC supply held at a loss, as well as the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

The latter is already on the radar for traders after BTC/USD returned to it for the first time since 2023 last week.

“The LTH-SOPR / STH-SOPR ratio has fallen significantly, indicating that long-term holders are no longer realizing the large profits seen during the previous bull market,” XWIN continued about the other components. 

“Supply in Profit has dropped to roughly 47%, meaning more than half of Bitcoin holders are now at break-even or in a loss position. This is a sharp contrast to bull market conditions, when over 90% of supply is often in profit.”

Bitcoin supply in profit (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant also flagged a “demand shortage” thanks to tech stocks stealing the limelight from crypto as a whole.

Sentiment reflects “widespread despair” opportunity

Crypto market sentiment has returned to single figures, per data from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index — but a buying opportunity could be already here.

Related: Bitcoin risks new purge with bear-market losses still $35B below 2022 total

The Index, which uses a basket of factors to determine the overall market mood, measured 8/100 on Monday — well within its “extreme fear” zone.

Such a low score was last seen at the start of April, and is one of the lowest ever recorded.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

Monitoring social media cues, research platform Santiment described the “highest level of pessimism since mid-February.” 

“Historically, these moments of widespread despair have often appeared close to market bottoms,” it told X followers. 

“When traders begin declaring an asset class ‘dead,’ especially something largely speculative-driven like crypto, it typically signals that many sellers have already exited their positions, leaving less supply available to push prices significantly lower.”

Crypto sentiment data. Source: Santiment/X

In February, when the $60,000 zone first came back into focus, a collapse in sentiment preceded a rebound to the mid-$70,000 range.

“While sentiment alone cannot predict exact turning points, historical patterns indicate that periods when investors are most convinced that crypto is ‘finished’ have frequently provided safer-than-average opportunities for patient traders willing to take the opposite side of the crowd’s emotions,” Santiment added.