Bitcoin ‘too expensive’ for retail, threatens to end bull market cycle

Bitcoin is becoming increasingly unattainable for average investors, raising questions about whether the current bull market can sustain its momentum beyond the traditional four-year cycle.

Crypto market intelligence company 10x Research suggested Bitcoin (BTC) is becoming too expensive for sustained retail purchases, a development that may endanger the predicted extension of the current bull market cycle.

Despite numerous calls for an extended market cycle, drawing on the conclusions of the four previous market cycles is “highly questionable,” according to 10x.

“Bitcoin is suffering from diminishing returns,” the company stated in a Tuesday report, adding:

“While many view this as a natural sign of maturity, it raises deeper questions about the validity of the so-called Bitcoin cycle theory.”

Considering that Bitcoin is only a 16-year-old asset, drawing “firm statistical conclusions” from this short time is “highly questionable,” added 10X Research.

Related: Arthur Hayes calls for $1M Bitcoin as new Japan PM orders economic stimulus

Bitcoin may see $125,000 cycle top, despite stock-to-flow model forecasting $1 million BTC

Despite numerous forecasting models, such as the popular stock-to-flow model, which has been widely cited as predicting a Bitcoin surge to $1 million, 10x Research’s methodology projected a cycle top of $125,000 for the end of the year.

The research firm used a similar methodology to correctly forecast the bear market bottom that occurred in October 2022.

Related: Crypto treasuries siphon $800B from altcoins, and it might be ‘forever’

10x’s price target is modest compared to predictions from other industry insiders.

Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, predicted a Bitcoin price of $200,000 for the end of 2025, as the record $19 billion liquidation event may turn into a buying opportunity for investors, he told Cointelegraph during the 2025 European Blockchain Convention in Barcelona. 

In a February interview, Kendrick predicted that Bitcoin could surge to $500,000 by the time Trump concludes his second term in 2028, Cointelegraph reported.

The industry’s most successful traders, tracked as “smart money” traders on Nansen’s blockchain intelligence platform, are also seeking increasing Bitcoin exposure.

Binance-native Bitcoin (BTCB) was the 11th most-held token by smart money traders on Tuesday, following some more speculative memecoin holdings such as the Pump.fun (PUMP) token and the Pepe (PEPE) memecoin, data from Nansen shows.

Magazine: Bitcoin to see ‘one more big thrust’ to $150K, ETH pressure builds