Bitcoin Stays Deaf To Risk-Asset Highs As ‘Stagflation’ Talk Returns

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed motionless at Thursday’s Wall Street open as analysis saw signs of reemergent US “stagflation.”

Key points:

• Bitcoin stays below $65,000 as Iran tempers expectations over the Strait of Hormuz oil route reopening.
• US PMI data analysis sees “stagflation” return as a potential future risk.
• BTC price indecisiveness means that the market still lacks a “genuine breakdown,” says Bitfinex.

Iran cools market hopes of Hormuz deal

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD hovering above $64,000, down around 0.5% on the day, while US stocks opened flat.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Anticipation of a deal between Iran and Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz oil route did little to spark volatility — in the absence of US participation, it remained uncertain whether international shipping would fully resume.

“This understanding does not, in itself, mean that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen,” Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said in an interview with the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), quoted by CNN.

US WTI crude oil was little changed on the day at $76 per barrel, having hit three-week lows of $74.30 the day prior.

CFDs on WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

As markets awaited further geopolitical cues, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter turned to the latest US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services PMI and employment data. Released on Wednesday, this showed a divergence continuing, with PMI rising 0.1 point in July to 54.1, while employment dropped 3.6 points to 47.4, its lowest reading since March.

“At the same time, the prices paid index surged +2.6 points, to 70.3, near the highest since October 2022. Prices paid have now trended higher for over 2 years, rising +16.9 points since March 2024. In other words, the economy is increasingly under pressure from both rising prices and a weakening labor market,” it reported on X.

Kobeissi added that the odds of stagflation was thus “intensifying” based on the combined PMI readings.

US services PMI data. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X.com

Analysis debates solution to BTC price paralysis

With Bitcoin failing to break beyond a local range in place since the start of June, onchain analytics platform Glassnode described BTC/USD as showing “boredom rather than capitulation.”

Related: Bitcoin treasury trade ‘breaking’ and fund holdings drop 10%: Analysis

In its latest analysis on Thursday, Glassnode noted Bitcoin’s lack of reaction as gold hit its highest levels in six weeks and the S&P 500 reached all-time highs. 

“The regime in one line: a compressed, under-owned market that global risk appetite has left behind, with bottom conditions assembling but incomplete,” it summarized.

BTC/USD vs. S&P 500 one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Previously, Cointelegraph reported on bear-market comparisons seeing history repeating itself in 2026, with Bitcoin slowly eroding support before dropping to the cycle’s next macro floor.

Echoing Glassnode’s sentiment, Bitfinex Research, the analytics arm of crypto exchange Bitfinex, also saw the need for a more decisive macro bottom trigger than current conditions could produce.

“While macro developments and bitcoin’s underperformance compared with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 signal underlying stress, a genuine breakdown requires something more forceful, followed by volume-supportive price action,” it wrote in an update on Wednesday.