Bitcoin Price Is Likely to Remain Under $80K for Longer: Here’s Why

Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded 32% to a 10-week high of $79,500 on April 22 from its sub-60,000 multi-year low. But recent buyers took advantage of the rally to exit as the price has since corrected to $76,000 on Thursday, with $80,000 proving a tough barrier to break.

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin sell pressure risk exists around $80,000, a resistance level that may delay the bulls.
• Short-term holders and Bitcoin ETF investors keep selling, frustrating recovery attempts.

Bitcoin price can’t crack $80,000

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin failed to break above $80,000 as its rebound fell short of a bull market comeback.

This is due to the resistance zone between the True Market Mean at $78,000 and the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis at $79,000, which continues to cap upward momentum, as recent buyers used this range to exit near breakeven.

“This behavior is a textbook pattern in bear markets, where price approaches the breakeven level of the most price-sensitive cohort, the incentive to exit positions overwhelms incoming demand, exhausting upside momentum,” Glassnode said in its latest Week Onchain newsletter, adding:

“With this rejection confirming overhead resistance, the mid-term bias tilts toward further downward pressure.”

 

Bitcoin STH cost basis model. Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution data shows that investors hold about 475,301 BTC at an average cost of $77,800-$80,880, reinforcing the significance of this resistance zone.

Traders say the BTC/USD pair must flip the resistance at $80,000 into support to target higher highs toward $84,000.

After reclaiming the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages, BTC/USD has sent “one bottoming signal after another firing on higher timeframes,” technical analyst SuperBitcoinBro said in a Wednesday post on X, adding:

“But I agree it needs to get past 80K.”

Daan Crypto Trades said the $80,000 level remains the “main level for the bulls in the short/mid term.”

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: X/Daan Crypto Trades

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin breaking $80,000 would signal that the bulls are still in control, paving the way for the next big resistance at $84,000.

BTC selling by short-term holders halts rally

Additional onchain data shows “heavy distribution” by short-term holders, as these investors booked profits on Bitcoin’s recent rally to $80,000.

The 24-hour SMA of STH Realized Profit shows that as the price approached the $80,000 level, recent buyers realized profits at a rate of $4 million per hour. 

The 24-hour SMA of STH Realized Profit is a real-time measure of how aggressively recent buyers are realizing gains.

The metric spiked as high as $7.2 million per hour on April 15, about roughly “four times the base level that had established itself since mid-April, confirming that short-term holders seized the rally as a distribution opportunity,” Glassnode said, adding:

“The buy side simply lacked sufficient liquidity to absorb this wave of profit realization, capping momentum and triggering the subsequent rejection.”

Bitcoin Entity-Adjusted STH realized profit. Source: Glassnode

More selling pressure came from US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which have recorded outflows for three consecutive days, totaling $390 million.

This marked the longest outflow streak since March 20, when a three-day outflow streak accompanied an 11.5% BTC price drop after rejection at $76,000. 

Spot BTC ETF flows chart. Source: SoSoValue

Analysts at Wise Advise said that the return to spot BTC ETF outflows after a nine-day inflow streak is the first sign that “the local top may be in.”

This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.