Bitcoin halving cycle history challenges $300,000–$500,000 moonshot forecasts

Veteran trader Peter Brandt anticipates a peak between $300,000 and $500,000. Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra expect prices to hit $500,000 by 2029, citing booming demand for spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Reality check

However, while the four-year cycles have consistently produced new all-time highs, the reality of this cycle is different.

As bitcoin grows, matures, and becomes more valuable, it takes significantly more capital to push it meaningfully higher. The track record of cycle highs proves it:

• 2013: $266
• 2017: nearly ~$20,000 (75x from previous high)
• 2021: ~$69,000 (3.5x from 2017)
• 2025: $126,000 (just 1.8x from 2021)

What this means is that bull runs are getting steadier, with more measured gains rather than moonshots. If this trend continues, the next peak may fall well short of the anticipated $300,000 to $500,000 levels. (A rally to $300,000 or more requires over 2 times the jump from the 2025 high)

This is not necessarily bad news, however.

As noted earlier, the bigger the asset becomes, the more capital is required to move it higher. And with the institutionalization of the market and an ever-increasing array of advanced risk management products, such as bitcoin ETF futures, options, volatility bets, arbitrage funds, and structured products with embedded options, BTC is naturally becoming less volatile and more Wall Street-like.