Bitcoin Gains ‘Cleanest Catalyst’ as Bond Yields Drop on Weak US Jobs Data

Bitcoin (BTC) spiked past $87,000 on Friday as US jobs data missed expectations.

Key points:

• Bitcoin tapped $87,200 but failed to make new multi-month highs as overhead resistance held.
• September US nonfarm payrolls came in below expectations at 29,000, while the August and July figures were revised lower.
• Analysts saw further BTC price upside on the back of falling US bond yields

Bond yields extend fall on weak labor-market data

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching $87,229 on Bitstamp, just shy of new eight-month highs.

BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

September nonfarm payrolls data came in below expectations, with the economy adding just 29,000 jobs against an anticipated 84,000. August numbers, which had beat expectations on release, were revised down from 162,000 to 133,000. 

US stocks gained at the Wall Street open as traders scaled back hawkish bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes following the weaker jobs data. The S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1% and 1.8%, respectively.

“This marks the third weakest jobs report of 2026,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted in a reaction on X.

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed just an 18% chance of the Fed enacting a 0.25% rate hike at its October meeting, down from 64% a week ago.

US bond yields fell for a second consecutive day, with the 30-year yield at 5.573% and the 10-year at 5.2% at the time of writing. On Wednesday, both reached new 24-year highs as markets looked past softer August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, known as the Fed’s “preferred” inflation gauge.

US 10-year bond yield one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin analysis sees “cleanest upside catalyst” in yield drop

Bitcoin price action failed to break beyond multi-month highs seen in September, dropping back below $86,000 at the time of writing.

Related: Here’s what happened in crypto today

Previously, Cointelegraph reported on successive walls of ask liquidity on exchange order books keeping upside in check, with the latest band at $87,300 forming new resistance.

BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass

In a new analysis, trading firm QCP Capital argued that BTC/USD should still benefit from the softer labor-market print, with bond yields continuing to fall.

“For Bitcoin, a Treasury relief rally would provide the cleanest upside catalyst. The asset has already demonstrated resilience through a real-rate shock that pressured gold,” it wrote.

Meanwhile, trader Aksel Kibar saw that a successful support retest at $82,800 was already in place on the daily chart.

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Aksel Kibar on X.com