Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle ‘Normal’ Says Trader as BTC Hits Bottom Zone

Bitcoin (BTC) should see new all-time highs in 2028, a trader says as $53,000 becomes an important buy-in level.

Key points:

• Bitcoin is in “as normal a four-year cycle as they come,” says Bob Loukas as the timing for a bear-market bottom approaches.
• The cycle midpoint at $53,000 would be an advantageous market entry if price gets there.
• Uncertainty rules among market participants as question marks over $60,000 remain.

Loukas: 2026 BTC price action just like other cycles

In his latest YouTube update released on June 4, Bob Loukas stressed that the four-year BTC price cycle was alive and well.

“Everyone keeps saying, ‘it’s different this time, it’s different;’ I’ve heard every excuse out there possible, and we did last cycle as well,” he said.

“But this here is as normal a four-year cycle as they come.”

BTC/USD drawdowns from all-time highs. Source: Glassnode

Loukas, a well-known voice in Bitcoin trading circles, maintains that the similarities spanning previous bull and bear markets are repeating this year.

As such, even with its fresh dip below $60,000, BTC/USD is still far closer to its old all-time high than the lowpoint that marked old bear-market bottoms.

The past four years has produced a midpoint of around $53,000, making that level of key interest as both support and resistance — and a plausible buy-in point for the bear-market low.

Loukas says that the “window” for a cycle low occurs 10% either side of week 46 of the cycle. Currently, it is on week 44.

“The window is getting hit; the four-year cycle now is getting towards an end, but as I mentioned before, this is not any different to prior cycles,” he stressed.

BTC/USD one-month chart (screenshot). Source: Bob Loukas/YouTube

Loukas added that looking ahead, price discovery should return in 2028.

Bitcoin in “narrow psychological corridor”

As Cointelegraph reported, traders remain overwhelmingly cautious on BTC price action amid a lack of clear reversal signals.

Related: BTC price bottom not due until Q4? Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

Geopolitical and macroeconomic volatility has led analysis to adopt a “wait-and-see” approach to the market, avoiding specific bottom targets.

“The dynamic combination of optimism that $BTC has printed a bottom, alongside the FUD that it has not, is a classic character trait of bear markets,” trading resource Material Indicators wrote in recent commentary on X.

In its latest Market Color update on Monday, trading company QCP Capital was among those drawing attention to the role of $60,000 for sentiment.

“For now, BTC is sitting in a narrow psychological corridor,” it summarized. 

“The $60k area has attracted bids, options markets remain defensively positioned and macro risk is still doing its best impression of an unwelcome house guest.”