Bitcoin Eyes Independence Day at New July High as 200-week Trend Line Nears

Bitcoin (BTC) saw new July highs on Friday as bulls kept pushing over the US holiday period.

Key points:

• Bitcoin sustains upside momentum as BTC price action nears its 200-week moving average.
• That trend line now forms the centerpoint of a “strong resistance area.”
• Global equities hit record levels as Fed rate-hike odds simmer on weaker jobs data.

Bitcoin buyers “chasing” as BTC price eyes key trend line

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching $62,295 on Bitstamp, its highest since June 24.

BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

US markets were closed for the Independence Day holiday, with the Dow Jones closing at record highs the day prior.  As noted by trading resource The Kobeissi Letter, the global stock market cap also hit new all-time highs.

“Global equities are in the midst of one of the most powerful rallies in history,” it wrote in a post on X.

Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

Commenting on the latest BTC price action, X commentator Exitpump eyed “controlled slow buying” on exchanges.

“Looks good for continuation higher, although keeping in mind 62K – 62.5K as a strong resistance area,” they told X followers.

BTC/USD order-book data. Source: Exitpump/X

Trader Daan Crypto Trades focused on the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), currently at $62,652, for the weekly candle close.

“It is key for BTC now to hold this breakout and maintain its low timeframe bullish market structure,” he commented, calling the current trading zone “important.”

BTC/USDT perpetual contract one-hour chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Fed rate-hike headwinds slowly cool

On the back of weak US nonfarm payrolls data, which helped fuel the crypto rebound, trading resource Mosaic Asset Company noted that expectations for Federal Reserve policy remained conservative. 

Related: Bitcoin supply metric prints first ‘buy’ signal since late 2022 as bear market continues

“The knee-jerk reaction from investors was to push stock index futures higher, signaling a regime where bad economic news is good for stocks due to the impact on the rate outlook,” it wrote in its latest Mosaic Chart Alerts update.

Mosaic referred to interest-rate changes from the Fed, with potential hikes forming a headwind for crypto and risk assets.

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed roughly equal odds of a pause or hike at the Fed’s September meeting, with rates staying at current levels until then.

Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group

“The reality is that the payrolls report reflects a “Goldilocks” figure for the average stock, which isn’t too cold to stoke growth fears and not too hot to pull additional rate hikes forward,” it summarized about the jobs figures.