Bitcoin ETFs Shed $465M Over Two Days, Led by BlackRock’s IBIT

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net outflows for a second straight day on Friday, reversing a seven-day inflow streak, according to data from Farside Investors.

The funds bled $240 million on Friday, after $225 million the day before, erasing nearly half of the roughly $1 billion they had taken in during the preceding seven-day streak. Inflows had built to a $227 million peak on July 20, the streak’s biggest day, before demand faded. BlackRock’s IBIT drove the turn, accounting for just under $415 million of the two-day outflow. Even so, the ETFs still finished last week net positive, up almost $34 million, as the outflows only partly offset three strong inflow sessions.

A risk-off week

Tim Sun, Senior Researcher at HashKey, told Decrypt that the rapid reversal showed institutions making “tactical, phased allocations near the temporary price bottom,” reflecting “a lack of a solid foundation” for a sustained uptrend rather than conviction buying. IBIT’s outsized role mattered, he said: because it is the large, liquid fund institutions typically use to add exposure or hedge, heavy outflows there suggest they are “actively reducing their short-term Bitcoin exposure.”

Sun tied the move to weakening macro conditions, including renewed U.S.-Iran tensions lifting oil and inflation expectations, and bond markets pricing higher odds of a Fed rate hike later this year. The pullback was not confined to crypto, he added, with U.S. stock funds posting net outflows for a second straight week and bond funds breaking a run of inflows, which he said pointed to “a broader contraction across asset allocations.” The data confirms two things, according to Sun—that Bitcoin’s rally “lacks a firm foundation,” and that capital “remains on high alert” over macro risk. Should rate-hike expectations keep climbing, he warned, Bitcoin “could face further capital outflows and downside price pressure.”

Bitcoin is currently trading at $65,300, up 1.9% on the week, according to CoinGecko data. On prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt‘s parent company Dastan, users now place a 37% chance on BTC’s next move taking it to $84,000, up from lows of 20% at the start of the month.

Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, argued in a note last week that Bitcoin’s bottom “may already be in” if the Fed holds off on further rate hikes, dismissing the “four-year cycle” theory that points to a deeper low in September or October. The Fed’s next rate decision lands July 29, a near-term test of that view, with the CME FedWatch tool currently placing a 34% chance on a 25bps rate hike.

Waiting for a rebound

Stephen Wundke, strategy and revenue director at Algoz Technologies, agreed the trend “reversed last week” as President Trump signaled renewed action against Iran and Houthi attacks near the Red Sea pushed oil back above $100, reviving inflation and rate fears and sending investors back to cash.

He was more upbeat on what follows. Most investors see current prices “near the bottom of the cycle,” Wundke said, and “the overall feeling is one of optimism.” With a pause in U.S.-Iran strikes extending to a third day, should the fighting “fizzle out,” he expects oil to stabilize near $80, inflation fears to recede, and ETF inflows—and prices—to climb steadily again. August is usually a “dull month for crypto,” he cautioned, so investors should not “expect fireworks yet,” but he argued the industry is laying the groundwork for a push toward year-end, ideally on the back of a negotiated peace in the Middle East.