Bitcoin Circles $64K As Fed Official Hints At Need For Rate Hike Despite Cool PPI

Bitcoin (BTC) edged away from weekly lows on Thursday after the US Producer Price Index (PPI) narrowly cooled in July.

Key points:

• Bitcoin avoids further downside as US PPI data provides a boost to US equities.
• Cleveland Fed president stays hawkish on the outlook for interest-rate policy. 
• Bitcoin long liquidations make $61,000 a key level to watch.

July PPI extends cooler US inflation trend

BTC/USD was up around 0.5% on the day near $63,900 with volatility broadly absent, data from TradingView showed.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The July US Producer Price Index (PPI) print was unchanged month-on-month at 0.2%, while year-on-year increased 4.7% versus an anticipated 4.9%, per data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

“In July, a 0.2-percent increase in the index for final demand services and a 2.2-percent advance in prices for final demand construction offset a 0.7-percent decrease in the index for final demand goods,” the BLS release said.

“Falling gasoline and energy prices provided the biggest relief,” Econoday analysts highlighted.

US PPI one-month % change. Source: BLS

US stocks gained at the Wall Street open as PPI further cooled market bets on interest-rate hikes from Federal Reserve policymakers. The S&P 500 index and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index were up 0.87% and 0.94%, respectively, at the time of writing.

CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed 65.6% odds of those policymaker holding rates at the current 3.50-3.75% level at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) September meeting. Wednesday’s July Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers matched expectations, already resulting in a boost to the rate-pause outlook.

Fed target-rate probability comparison for September FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group

After their biggest split over the interest-rate path since 1970 in July, Fed officials continued to strike a cautious tone over policy. Speaking at an event with the Dayton Area Chamber of Commerce in Kettering, Ohio, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank president Beth Hammack questioned whether even recent cooler data prints would be enough to bring inflation down to the Fed’s 2% target.

“Maybe we’d get there, but if it takes another three to four years to get there, is that OK? Is that enough?” she said, quoted by Bloomberg.

Hammock was one of three officials to vote in favor of a 0.25% rate hike in July.

Related: Bitcoin speculators keep BTC price ‘pinned’ below $68.7K: Glassnode

Bitcoin faces long position liquidations at $61,000

With BTC price action still acting within a tight range, market participants’ attention focused on the extremes.

Rafael Schultze-Kraft, cofounder of onchain analytics platform Glassnode, suggested that $61,000 could become a flashpoint thanks to the large potential long position liquidations that would occur if price were to reach it.

“Long liquidation risk has built up around $61K in the past weeks. If we get there, I’d expect forced selling to add momentum to the downside,” he wrote in a Tuesday X post.

Previously, Cointelegraph reported on $63,000 now forming another key BTC price level as repeated retests increased the odds of support failure.

Bitcoin futures liquidation heatmap. Source: Rafael Schultze-Kraft on X.com