Bitcoin Breakout Highlights Demand But Key Rally Factors Are Absent

Bitcoin (BTC) needs fresh spot demand to absorb the rising BTC supply across exchanges and exchange-traded funds. Recent exchange inflows and ETF outflows created nearly 34,000 BTC in local selling pressure, while derivatives data showed the latest recovery was driven mostly by short covering. 

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. said BTC exchange and exchange-traded fund (ETF) activity continue to show a local supply imbalance despite the latest recovery. The weekly exchange netflows climbed by roughly 18,000 BTC, indicating more coins were added to exchanges than were withdrawn. Higher BTC inflows increase the near-term selling supply.

Bitcoin weekly exchange netflows. Source: CryptoQuant

The spot BTC ETFs also recorded net outflows of nearly 16,000 BTC during the same period. Adler said that the institutional flows failed to absorb exchange supply and instead reinforced the recent risk-off phase in the market.

The two metrics generated around 34,000 BTC in sell pressure across exchanges and ETFs. Adler noted that the BTC exchange netflows likely need to shift back toward neutral or negative territory before the price rebounds gain stronger momentum.

Glassnode analyst cryptovizart also noted that daily ETF trading volume has dropped to below $20 billion, down from above $50 billion in late 2025. Lower trading activity points to fading speculative demand through traditional finance channels and to weaker spot absorption during rallies.

Spot BTC ETF trading volume. Source: Glassnode

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Bitcoin open interest reset eases pressure

The rebound toward $77,800 followed a brief dip below the $75,000 support level, with buyers quickly reclaiming lost ground. The recovery also aligned with improving investor sentiment after reports of a possible US-Iran peace deal reduced broader market risk concerns and lifted appetite for risk assets.

BTC price, spot CVD, aggregated open interest, and funding rate. Source: Velo chart

Derivatives data showed the rally was largely driven by traders closing positions. Aggregated Bitcoin open interest fell to around 250,000 BTC from nearly 268,000 BTC during the rebound phase, then recovered slightly to 254,000 BTC on Monday. The decline pointed to short covering activity as bearish traders exited positions after BTC reclaimed support.

Aggregated funding rates also cooled during the move higher, dropping to around 0.0026 from recent highs near 0.008 while staying in positive territory. The reset reduced the immediate long-squeeze risk and showed that leveraged long positioning had become less crowded during the recovery.

Crypto analyst Rei Researcher noted that the daily funding rate has remained negative since February 2026, indicating that short traders continue to pay longs to hold positions. The analyst added that Bitcoin’s ability to stabilize near $77,500 despite persistent short-term pressure points suggests steady spot demand is absorbing supply on higher time frames.

Glassnode data also showed signs of cooling sell pressure. The price momentum weakened by 21.7% during the drop, while spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) and futures CVD climbed by 77.2% and 35.5%, respectively. The shift indicated that selling activity began to ease as market positioning became more balanced.

For BTC to build momentum toward the $80,000 level, open interest and spot demand need to rise in tandem with price.

BTC perpetual CVD data. Source: Glassnode

Related: Bitcoin risks drop to $72K as demand metric hits 2026 lows