Billions flowing out of bitcoin ETFs and private credit funds suggest rising market risks

Average requests rose to 10.3% of shares from 9.7% in Q1, but ranged widely (1.3%–38.1% at Blue Owl’s OTIC), Fitch said. Many requests were follow-ups from investors who were only partly satisfied last quarter. New inflows fell by about 56% on average, so most funds saw net outflows of roughly 3% of the prior quarter’s net asset value.

What’s concerning, for private credit, is that Fitch expects continued redemptions in the months ahead.

“With BDCs capping redemptions at 5% quarterly, unfulfilled requests will lead to persistent elevated redemptions for many firms in the coming quarters,” ratings agency Fitch warned,” the ratings agency said.

Same story, different structures

Bitcoin ETFs are liquid, exchange-traded vehicles, where outflows directly impact the spot price of BTC. Private credit BDCs are the opposite: illiquid, long-duration lending vehicles with built-in quarterly gates.

Still, the fact that investors rushed for exit in both at the same time does point to broader caution around liquidity and risk appetite.

Amid all this, energy markets continue to send risk-off signals, with the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest level since 1983. So, if the energy market remains disrupted, the government now has significantly less buffer to flood the market with oil and keep prices lower.