Bernstein Sees Prediction Markets Go Institutional After First Block Trade

Prediction markets are evolving from retail speculation platforms into institutional-grade financial instruments, driven by demand for precise macro hedging and clearly defined binary outcomes, according to a May 4 report by Bernstein.

The report highlights why institutional investors may find these markets attractive — namely, they allow users to hedge specific event risks, such as tariffs, elections and geopolitical developments, using contracts that resolve to simple yes-or-no outcomes.

Bernstein pointed to the first bespoke institutional block trade executed on Kalshi last week as a key milestone. A block trade refers to a privately negotiated, large transaction typically arranged between institutional counterparties.

The deal was brokered by Greenlight Commodities and involved a Houston, Texas-based environmental hedge fund and Jump Trading as the liquidity provider. The custom contract was tied to the clearing price of California’s May carbon allowance auction, illustrating how prediction markets can be tailored to specific client needs.

“We believe the introduction of block trading and bespoke contracts could expand participation from institutional investors seeking targeted exposure to event risks,” wrote the Bernstein analysts. 

Separately, Bernstein said Clear Street’s partnership with Kalshi gives institutional investors a regulated way to access prediction markets, allowing them to trade these contracts alongside traditional assets like stocks and futures.

Listing of Kalshi’s largest active event contracts by volume. Source: Bernstein

Related: US Senate bans itself from betting on prediction markets

Retail leads prediction markets as institutional interest grows

The shift toward institutional adoption is notable given that prediction markets are still largely driven by retail activity. A recent report by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket found that retail users accounted for more than 80% of the $25.7 billion in prediction market volumes recorded in March.

Greater institutional participation could accelerate the market’s growth, with Berinstein projecting that prediction markets could evolve into a trillion-dollar industry by the end of the decade.

Prediction market trading volumes topped $25 billion in March. Source: Bitget Wallet

Regulatory momentum in the United States is also shaping the sector’s trajectory, though the landscape remains uneven. 

Kalshi operates as a federally regulated exchange under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while Polymarket received conditional approval in late 2025 to offer event contracts in the US through regulated channels.

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