Banks tread carefully on stablecoins despite market growth, S&P Global says

Banks are approaching stablecoins cautiously despite rapid market growth, reflecting early-stage strategy and rising structural concerns, according to a report by S&P Global Market Intelligence.

According to the Wednesday report, the question is no longer whether stablecoins will endure, but how they will reshape business models, infrastructure and revenue, For banks, the trade-offs are sharp, spanning deposit risk, modernization costs and new competition.

A wait-and-see stance still dominates. S&P Global’s Q1 2026 U.S. Bank Outlook survey found just 7% of 100 mostly smaller institutions are developing frameworks, with none actively piloting, underscoring how exploratory strategies remain.

“Most financial institutions remain early and cautious,” said Jordan McKee, director of fintech research at S&P Global Market Intelligence, in emailed comments. “Our survey of U.S. banks shows that stablecoin strategy is still largely exploratory, with limited internal development and no active pilots among smaller institutions.”

Stablecoins, digital tokens pegged to assets like fiat currencies or commodities, have become a core layer for payments and settlement in crypto, widely used in trading and cross-border flows. The market is dominated by Tether’s USDT, followed by Circle Internet’s (CRCL) USDC.

The stablecoin market has grown rapidly into a roughly $300 billion-plus sector, with total market capitalization surpassing $316 billion in early 2026 after nearly doubling since 2023, according to multiple data sources.

Transaction volumes have also surged into the tens of trillions annually, underscoring rising use in trading, payments and cross-border transfers, while forecasts point to continued expansion, potentially reaching $500 billion or more in the near term as institutional adoption accelerates.

Pressure is building. The report pointed to growing concern over deposit cannibalization and customer migration, alongside a surge in stablecoin mentions on earnings calls following the GENIUS Act’s passage in July 2025.

Competition is also intensifying. S&P Global highlighted a wave of nonbanks pursuing charters to house stablecoin issuance, custody and settlement within regulated entities, positioning themselves as credible alternatives.

Banks are also wary of yield-like incentives in stablecoin ecosystems that could compete with deposits, even as direct interest payments remain restricted.

Responses will diverge. S&P Global analysts expect large, global banks to explore issuing tokenized deposits or bank-backed digital assets, while regional and midsize lenders focus on facilitating access via fiat on- and off-ramps. Regardless of strategy, banks will remain key gateways between fiat and stablecoin networks, but doing so will require significant upgrades to legacy systems ill-suited for real-time digital asset activity.

Cross-border banks face the strongest push to modernize as payments shift to multi-rail systems combining traditional, real-time and tokenized networks. Interoperability and wallet infrastructure will be critical, with large banks building multi-network connectivity and smaller firms leaning on fintech partners. Secure custody and embedded compliance are expected to become standard, the report added.

Read more: Stablecoin rewards restrictions can slow but not stop Circle’s USDC, says Citigroup