Bitcoin Tries for New July Highs Amid Falling Oil, Dollar Strength

Bitcoin (BTC) eyed new July highs on Friday as US-Iran peace momentum kept oil lower.

Key points:

• Bitcoin bulls keep upside momentum going as BTC/USD seeks a new multi-week record.
• Declining oil prices and US dollar strength contrast with crypto market rebound.
• $65,000 is now “crucial resistance” to be tackled, says analysis.

Bitcoin reaches $64,350 as dollar strength, oil drop

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD climbing above $64,000, coming within $400 of new three-week highs.

BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Amid ongoing hopes that the US-Iran peace deal could be salvaged, US WTI crude oil stayed lower after rejecting from $76 per barrel.

CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

US dollar strength fell for a third straight day, with the US dollar index (DXY) approaching its lowest figures since mid-June.

US dollar index (DXY) one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Commenting on the current macro landscape, trading company QCP Capital warned that risks to economies were still growing. It specifically highlighted the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

“With no monetary cushion coming, the physical buffers matter more. In oil, Doha talks ended with no shipping deal and missiles struck two tankers on 7 July, with Hormuz flows still well below normal,” it wrote about recent Iran events. 

“The reserve looks thinner still: the SPR is at 319.5mb, its lowest since 1983, leaving just 19.5mb before the 300mb stress zone.” 

US SPR one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

QCP added that recent BTC sales by business intelligence company Strategy showed that the instability had spread to crypto.

“It’s clearest in private credit, where redemption requests have blown through the 5% quarterly gates across several funds,” it added.

Crypto markets looking “better day after day”

More optimistic on the longer-term outlook, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted that the odds of US inflation passing 4.5% in 2026 had fallen below 20%.

Related: Bitcoin ETFs end ‘most overwhelming’ $2.7B sell-off amid new $85M net outflow

“Just 7 weeks ago, there was an 85% chance of inflation rising above 4.5% this year,” it wrote in an X post on Thursday alongside data from prediction service Polymarket. 

“Inflation expectations are coming down again.”

Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

Continuing, crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted the oil-price trend as one key factor for “a lot of upside” across markets.

“The markets look better day after day,” he told X followers on Friday. 

“Bitcoin attacking the crucial resistance of $65,000 again. If this breaks, then we’re flipping many downtrends on many Altcoins into uptrends.”