Bitcoin July Relief Rally Becomes Traders’ “Base Case” As $60K Returns

Bitcoin (BTC) rallied to $60,000 at Wednesday’s Wall Street open as stocks moved higher and US dollar strength fell.

Key points:

• Bitcoin catches an early tailwind at the start of July’s first US trading session, rising with stocks.
• US dollar strength cools as analysis sees an increasingly “crowded” USD long trade.
• Bitcoin traders maintain faith that July will form a relief-bounce monthly candle.

BTC price eyes 3%+ daily gains

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD spiking to $60,475 on Bitstamp, taking daily gains to nearly 3%.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The new monthly candle had started with a bump and a trip to new multiyear lows for the pair, and 24-hour crypto long liquidations totaled more than $200 million at the time of writing, per data from CoinGlass.

BTC/USD vs. cryptocurrency liquidations (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

“$BTC showing a lovely pump this NY session,” trader Lennaert Snyder wrote in a response on X.

Snyder expected a low-time frame reversal to kick in, with an accompanying chart showing “exhaustion” to hit before price reached $60,700.

BTC/USDT one-hour chart. Source: Lennaert Snyder/X

Fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades saw a potential breakout on the cards should price attack either end of its low-time-frame range.

“Let’s see if this turns this $58K-$61K area into a range for the time being,” he told X followers on the day. 

“I think there’s a good chance that the next attempt at the range high or low will cause a decisive break and bigger move.”

BTC/USDT perpetual contract one-hour chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Bitcoin appeared to benefit from a drop in US dollar strength, with the US dollar index (DXY) reversing from local highs of 101.6 at the open.

US dollar index (DXY) one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Stock markets trended higher after some initial volatility, in part fueled by Meta stock, which added over 11% in the first hour.

Commenting on DXY, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter warned that a broader dollar trend change could come “soon.”

“The long US Dollar trade is crowded: Speculative long positioning in the US Dollar surged to +$34.3 billion as of June 23rd, the highest in 18 months,” it reported on X.

US dollar long position data. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

Bitcoin July relief rally becomes “base case”

Other market participants continued to call for a BTC price relief rally through July.

Related: Bitcoin just $5K away from ‘best investment opportunity’ of bear market

“Bitcoin Monthly close below its long-term trendline,” trader Titan noted alongside the one-month BTC/USD chart. 

“My base case: a relief rally in July before the downtrend resumes.”

BTC/USD one-month chart. Source: Titan/X

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital reiterated his belief that July would offer the opposite of June’s downside before a return to bearish moves in August.

“Red June. Green July. Red August. This is what Bitcoin price history suggests,” he summarized on the day. 

“Bitcoin could possibly see some downside wicking below the new Monthly Open in early July. But history suggests price should be able expand to the upside as the month progresses.”