Bitcoin Trails Money Supply Growth as Energy Costs and Rates Bite

Bitcoin is trading at a steep discount to global liquidity trends, according to new analysis from CF Benchmarks, even as macro headwinds tied to energy prices and monetary policy complicate the outlook for risk assets and economic growth.

Global M2 money supply has risen about 12% since mid-2025, while Bitcoin has fallen roughly 35% over the same period, the Kraken-owned index provider said. 

One model cited in its report, published Thursday, implies a “fair value” of about $136,000, compared with Bitcoin’s current price near $70,000.

The divergence marks one of the largest gaps on record between Bitcoin and a metric long viewed by analysts as a proxy for global liquidity. Historically, expansions in money supply have filtered into risk assets, with Bitcoin often responding more sharply than equities.

“The key takeaway from more than a decade of data is that divergences between M2 and Bitcoin have historically been temporary,” Gabe Selby, Head of Research at CF Benchmarks, told Decrypt in an emailed statement.

Analysts say the missing link is U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve has reduced its balance sheet to around $6.7 trillion from a peak near $9 trillion in 2022 and maintains elevated interest rates, keeping financial conditions tight even as liquidity grows elsewhere.

That backdrop has limited capital flows into markets, leaving Bitcoin more closely tied to real rates and broader risk sentiment than to headline money supply growth.

The elephant in the room

At the same time, rising energy prices are adding pressure to household finances. 

Economists estimate that an 81-cent increase in U.S. gasoline prices since late February could cost households roughly $740 over the year, potentially offsetting much of the boost from larger tax refunds.

In January, the White House projected that tax refunds for Americans would increase by an average of $1,000 come winter, compared with previous cycles, citing President Donald Trump’s Working Families Tax Cuts Act.

Markets have also focused on disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil supply, and the resulting inflationary risks.

Elevated rates and increased oil prices, driven by the U.S.’s ongoing conflict with Iran, have plagued markets in recent weeks, with oil topping $100 a barrel on Thursday before falling back to more modest levels near $92.

It comes as the Fed held interest rates steady on Wednesday, maintaining a cautious stance as rising energy costs complicate its effort to balance persistent inflation with a cooling labour market.

The federal funds rate was left unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75%, extending a pause that began in January after a series of cuts late last year.

The combination risks dampening discretionary spending and reducing the pool of capital available for investment in higher-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies and growth stocks, should prices remain high.

Still, most experts argue that global economic growth could accelerate again if financial conditions ease and the conflict in the Middle East is contained, providing a major tailwind for crypto.

Past cycles suggest Bitcoin tends to catch up with liquidity trends over a multi-quarter horizon, particularly when the Fed shifts toward rate cuts or slows balance-sheet reduction, according to CF Benchmarks.

The question is when?

Since the Biden administration’s post-pandemic stimulus measures, inflation has continued to filter through and wreak havoc on prices for goods and services, while the central bank sought to slash its benchmark rate to boost growth.

Now, markets are contending with that sticky inflation, foreign wars, and monetary tightening, leading to uncertainty among participants about the direction of risk assets. And crypto, which has mostly followed in lockstep with the Nasdaq, remains tied.

“An uptick in demand through the TradFi vehicles that helped drive Bitcoin to all-time highs, namely the U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries, would provide more direct, mechanical support for a trend reversal,” Selby said.

“Ongoing buying from these cohorts represents a source of structural demand that did not exist in prior cycles,” he added.