Morning Minute: Polymarket Gets the Green Light; Kalshi Hits a Wall

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.

GM!

Today’s top news:

• Crypto majors slightly red; BTC at $86,700
• Polymarket cleared to operate in the US by CFTC
• Kalshi blocked for sports markets in Nevada after injunction removed
• Texas buys $5M of BTC via IBIT for state level BTC Reserve
• MON token jumps another 24% to $4.8B FDV, leads all top movers

⚖️ Polymarket Gets the Green Light; Kalshi Hits a Wall

Two big regulatory decisions impacting prediction markets just dropped.

And they point in completely opposite directions.

📌 What Happened

Yesterday, Polymarket received formal approval from the CFTC to operate legally in the United States.

It allows Polymarket to bring on U.S. users through regulated intermediaries and broker partners, and offer markets that pass federal risk, suitability, and contract-type tests.

This is a full reversal from 2022, when the CFTC fined and effectively exiled Polymarket from serving U.S. customers.#

Kalshi, meanwhile, just ran directly into the opposite outcome.

Back in April, Kalshi won a preliminary injunction stopping Nevada gaming regulators from enforcing a cease-and-desist order against it.

Yesterday, the same federal judge (Andrew Gordon) reversed himself and dissolved that injunction, siding with the Nevada Gaming Control Board.

Nevada argued Kalshi’s “event contracts” on sports are just sports bets and require a Nevada gaming license. And election contracts fall under the same category.

With the injunction resolved, Nevada can treat Kalshi like any other sportsbook and order them to stop offering sports contracts or face enforcement.

This means Kalshi either has to geo-fence Nevada or apply for a Nevada gaming license.

So now Polymarket is federally approved, and Kalshi is blocked at the state level.

🗣️ What Are They Saying

Kalshi’s interpretation “would require all sports betting across the country to come within the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)”

“That interpretation upsets decades of federalism regarding gaming regulation, is contrary to Congress’ intent … and cannot be sustained.” – Judge Gordon

“As other courts have recognized, Kalshi is a regulated, nationwide exchange for real-world events, and it is subject to exclusive federal jurisdiction. It’s very different from what state-regulated sportsbooks and casinos offer their customers. We are evaluating the decision and anticipate making an appeal to the Ninth Circuit.” – Sara Slane, Kalshi Head of Corporate Development

🧠 Why It Matters

This was a very mixed day for the future of prediction markets in the US.

The Polymarket news is a major positive, and now the world’s biggest player has the green light to operate in the US.

That’s huge.

But what does “operate in the US” look like in 2026?

Kalshi is now effectively blocked in Nevada, and other states are likely to follow Nevada’s lead. For perspective, DraftKings and FanDuel are blocked in some capacity in 10-15 states.

Kalshi can (and likely will) still appeal the decision, as their head of corporate development suggested. So it’s not over yet.

But now both Kalshi and now Polymarket are likely to face similar blocks (or at a minimum, ongoing litigation) in more of those states where gambling is banned, based on this Nevada precedent.

That’s a major setback.

The war for free and open prediction market usage across the U.S. is far from resolved.

One battle won, one lost – and a lot more to come…

🌎 Macro Crypto and Memes

A few Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

• Crypto majors are slightly red; BTC -1% at $86,600; ETH -1% at $2,910, BNB +1% at $856, SOL even at $136
• MON (+24%), SPX (+13%), and IP (+7%) led top movers
• Texas kicked off its Bitcoin reserve by purchasing $5M of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, beginning to deploy an approved $10M BTC budget
• U.S. Bank tested issuing a proprietary stablecoin on the Stellar network
• MoonPay secured a New York trust charter, joining Coinbase and Ripple and expanding its ability to custody assets and serve institutions
• Polymarket gained CFTC approval to reenter the U.S., clearing the way to onboard domestic users, brokers, and intermediaries directly
• Kalshi was effectively blocked in Nevada from offering sports and election markets after a judge reversed his original ruling
• Klarna announced a KlarnaUSD stablecoin on Tempo
• The Dept of Homeland Security has been investigating Bitmain as a national security risk, trying to determine if it can access its equipment remotely

In Corporate Treasuries / ETFs

• Metaplanet revealed plans to use its existing Bitcoin stash as collateral for a $130 million loan, intending to buy even more BTC for its treasury
• Saylor’s Strategy shared that even if BTC drops to $74k, they will have 5.9x assets to convertible debt

In Memes / Onchain Movers

• Memecoin leaders are mostly red, led by SPX; DOGE even, Shiba +3%, PEPE even, PENGU -6%, BONK -3%, TRUMP -2%, SPX +14%, and FARTCOIN -10%
• REKT jumped 37% in a rebound to $120M fdv
• WOJAK jumped 100% to $37M leading onchain movers; Billy (+2,200%) and Toly (+800%) were other notable movers

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

Here’s a rundown of major token, protocol and airdrop news from the day:

🚚 What is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

• NFT leaders were mostly flat on Tuesday; Punks -1% at 30.8 ETH, Pudgy -1% at 5.67, BAYC -1% at 5.89 ETH; Hypurr’s +3% at 720 HYPE
• Infinex Patrons (+22%) and Good Vibes Club (+13%) led notable movers